格林大华期货研究院专题报告：原木期货在国际贸易定价中的应用模式

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The futures pricing model is effective. After the listing of log futures, it has been implemented in international trade through models such as price - setting transactions and basis trading, improving pricing transparency and risk management efficiency [11]. - The combination of futures and spot is a trend. Industrial enterprises use the combined strategy of "futures hedging + basis trading" to achieve double hedging of price risk and basis risk [11]. - There is still a need to improve standardization and internationalization. Although the Dalian Commodity Exchange has promoted intelligent measurement standards and delivery system innovation, the low standardization of domestic logs and insufficient international market recognition remain challenges [11]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Traditional Log Pricing Model - Traditional Log Trade Pricing Model - Negotiated pricing: International log trade uses a bilateral negotiated pricing mechanism. Suppliers like those in New Zealand issue CFR benchmark quotes regularly, and domestic traders need to bargain dynamically. In 2020, overseas suppliers took the pricing initiative, leaving domestic importers in an asymmetric bargaining dilemma [3]. - Regional price benchmarks: New Zealand radiata pine accounts for nearly 70% of China's import volume. International pricing is based on the origin benchmark price plus shipping costs. The domestic market has problems such as a 10% difference in measurement standards between the north and the south and a lack of a standardized grading system [3]. - Long - term contracts and long - term agreement mechanisms: There are fixed - price contracts and quarterly price - adjustment contracts. However, the price inversion in 2023 exposed their defects, and most traders' long - term agreement mechanisms are in a state of "fixed quantity but unfixed price" [3]. - Problems Faced - High price fluctuation risk: The international log market has strong cyclical fluctuations. The price elasticity coefficient is affected by real estate demand, extreme climate events, and shipping costs. The price decline in March 2024 showed the lag of the traditional "quotation - bargaining" mechanism in risk management [4]. - Information asymmetry and trade frictions: Overseas suppliers monopolize origin data, leaving domestic traders without an authoritative price index and lacking forward - price discovery tools for hedging [4]. - Low standardization: There are "dual - track" contradictions in the current standards. The measurement difference rate between domestic national and local standards is 6% - 8%, and there is a 10% - 15% deviation between JAS - certified logs and national standards in international transactions [4]. - Contract execution risk: Long - term agreements may lead to defaults during sharp price fluctuations [4]. Feasibility and Necessity of the Futures Pricing Model - Model Discussion - Hedging: It means buying or selling an equal amount of futures contracts while trading actual goods. The theoretical basis is that the spot and futures markets tend to move in the same direction. To achieve risk hedging, conditions such as the same or similar varieties, appropriate quantity, opposite positions, and corresponding time periods need to be met. The main goals of enterprises' participation in hedging are to hedge market risks, smooth profit fluctuations, and improve operational efficiency [6][7]. - Basis trading: It combines price - setting and hedging. It gives more flexibility to both parties, helps reduce price risks, and improves trading efficiency. The mechanism is to determine the spot price based on the futures price plus a negotiated basis, such as "futures price + 50 yuan/cubic meter" [8][11]. - Advantages and Disadvantages Analysis - The futures pricing model reconstructs the traditional log trade pricing system. The hedging mechanism can lock price risks but incurs margin costs and professional team building expenses. The basis trading model reduces risk exposure to basis fluctuations but faces challenges in regional spread modeling and credit risk management [11]. Conclusions and Suggestions - Conclusions - The futures pricing model is effective in improving pricing transparency and risk management efficiency [11]. - Industrial enterprises use the combined strategy of futures and spot to hedge risks [11]. - There are challenges in standardization and internationalization [11]. - Suggestions for the Dalian Commodity Exchange - In terms of liquidity construction, introduce market - making mechanisms, reduce trading and storage costs [12]. - Optimize the standard system by promoting the "Log Intelligent Measurement Technology" group standard and obtaining international certifications [12]. - Innovate risk management tools by launching option combinations and pilot over - the - counter basis swaps, and developing composite risk management solutions [12].