双焦周报：淡季需求承压-20250522

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for coking coal and coke is "Neutral". The sub - ratings for coking coal in different aspects are: "Neutral - bearish" for spot, "Neutral" for warehouse receipt cost, "Neutral - bearish" for supply, "Neutral" for demand, "Neutral" for basis, and "Neutral" for inventory. For coke, the sub - ratings are: "Neutral - bearish" for spot, "Neutral" for warehouse receipt cost, "Neutral - bearish" for supply, "Neutral" for demand, "Neutral" for profit, and "Neutral" for inventory [3][4] 2. Core Views Coking Coal - The spot market for coking coal is weakening, with an increase in online auction failures. The supply side is expanding, with domestic coal production normal and Mongolian coal customs clearance back to normal levels, leading to a loose supply. The demand side has high - level downstream coking and steel enterprise operations, but weak demand expectations in the off - season, with only on - demand purchases. Overall, the fundamentals lack significant drivers. The market turnaround requires actual coal mine production cuts, which are unlikely in the short term. Without macro - level positive news, coking coal is expected to continue a slow decline to find a bottom [3] Coke - Last week, the first round of price cuts for coke was implemented, and steel mills intend to propose a second - round cut this week, with the market expecting 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts. Currently, the overall profitability of the coking industry is acceptable, and coking enterprises are highly motivated to operate, with the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises at 75.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.3%. The daily average iron - making output of 247 steel mills is 244.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.8 tons. Steel mills have good profits, and the decline in iron - making output is limited. Some steel mills are controlling coke purchases, and the inventory reduction of coking enterprises has slowed down. Overall, the supply and demand of coke are loose. Although the iron - making output is at a high level, the decline puts pressure on coke prices, and there is still room for price decline in the off - season, with a possible second - round price cut in the near future [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal Spot - The spot market continues to weaken, with the prices of some coal types dropping by 20 - 40 yuan/ton. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Anze, Shanxi has fallen to 1230 (- 40) yuan/ton, and the price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jinzhong is 1100 (-) yuan/ton. Mongolian coal downstream is pressuring prices for purchases, the port inventory is increasing, the shipment pressure is high, the traders' sentiment is deteriorating, and the market transaction price is continuously falling, with the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal around 780 - 800 yuan/ton [3][8][14] Warehouse Receipt Cost - The mainstream coking coal warehouse receipt is around 940 yuan/ton, and the low - price warehouse receipt is below 900 yuan/ton. The 09 contract on the futures market is at a discount [3][33] Supply - The coal mine capacity utilization rate has increased to 88.7% last week, a week - on - week increase of 0.3%. The capacity utilization rate in Shanxi has slightly increased to 92.3%, a week - on - week increase of 0.2%. Most coal mines in the production areas are operating normally, and the operations are basically stable. The average daily customs clearance of Ganqimaodu Port for Mongolian coal last week was 907 trucks [3][47] Demand - Coking and steel enterprises are operating at a high level and are currently making on - demand purchases [3] Basis - The futures market is fluctuating downward, the spot market is weakening, and the 09 contract on the futures market is at a discount [3] Inventory - Most coal mines do not have significant inventory pressure. With the increase in customs clearance and arrivals, the inventory at Mongolian coal ports and terminals is accumulating. Downstream coking and steel enterprises have high - level operations but mainly consume existing inventory and make on - demand purchases [3] Coke Spot - Last week, the first round of price cuts for coke was implemented. Currently, some steel mills plan a second - round cut, and the market expects 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts. The quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port is priced at around 1290 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton, and the quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke in Shanxi is priced at around 1150 yuan/ton [4][86] Warehouse Receipt Cost - The wet - quenched coke warehouse receipt is around 1430 yuan/ton, and the futures market is at par [4][91] Supply - Coking enterprises are profitable and highly motivated to operate, with production continuing to increase [4] Demand - The daily average iron - making output of 247 steel mills is 244.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.8 tons. The iron - making output remains at a high level, steel mills have good profits, and it is not easy to reduce production in the short term. There may be a slight decline in iron - making output in late May, but it will still be at a relatively high level [4][102] Profit - The profit of independent coking enterprises tracked by Steelhome is 7 (+ 6) yuan/ton. Coking enterprises in Shanxi, Hebei, Shandong and other places are profitable [4] Inventory - Steel mills are operating at a high level, but have weak demand expectations in the off - season. Some steel mills are controlling raw material purchases, and the inventory reduction of coking enterprises has slowed down [4]