Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, Rongchang Biopharmaceutical (9995 HK) [4][12]. Core Insights - The target price for the company has been raised to HKD 66.00, indicating a potential upside of 40.7% from the current price of HKD 46.90 [1][12]. - The company has initiated an H-share placement to raise approximately HKD 796 million to support pipeline expansion and operations, which is expected to alleviate cash burn pressure significantly [7]. - The revenue for Q1 2025 showed a strong growth of 59.2% year-on-year, driven by increased sales of Taitasip and Vidisizumab [7]. - The report maintains expectations for continued loss reduction in 2025-2026, with a forecasted break-even point in 2027 [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 1,076 million - 2024: RMB 1,710 million - 2025E: RMB 2,365 million - 2026E: RMB 3,331 million - 2027E: RMB 5,459 million - The net profit (loss) projections are: - 2023: (RMB 1,511 million) - 2024: (RMB 1,468 million) - 2025E: (RMB 800 million) - 2026E: (RMB 262 million) - 2027E: RMB 398 million [3][13]. - The report indicates a significant adjustment in the net profit forecast for 2027, increasing by over 60% due to optimistic expectations for Taitasip's market performance [7][8]. Valuation Model - The DCF valuation model estimates the equity value of the company at approximately RMB 33,799 million, translating to a per-share value of HKD 66.00 [9]. - The projected revenue growth reflects a robust increase, with expected revenues reaching RMB 18,221 million by 2033 [9]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 225.69%, with a 52-week high of HKD 47.00 and a low of HKD 10.62 [6]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 7.65 million shares [6]. Analyst Contact - The report includes contact information for analysts Ethan Ding and Gloria Zhuge for further inquiries [7].
荣昌生物：H股配售充实现金储备，基于泰它西普更乐观的海外预期；上调目标价-20250522