Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On May 22, the domestic asphalt market average price was 3,683 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a gain of 0.02%. The overall market trading atmosphere was relatively stable. In the north, supply in Shandong and Hebei was relatively low, and the shipment of low - price spot and contracts was supported. In the south, rainy weather suppressed road construction demand, and some refineries had increasing inventory pressure, but overall supply was not high and prices were stable [5]. - Oil prices are oscillating at a high level. The cost side of asphalt has support but no strong upward - driving force. Short - term supply and demand are stable. In the second quarter, the inventory accumulation speed of the industrial chain has slowed down, and the inventory is at a relatively low level year - on - year, which supports the near - end price. With the expectation of limited supply and low inventory, the peak - season expectation is relatively optimistic. Asphalt performs relatively strongly among oil products, and the asphalt/oil price spread remains high. The operating range of the BU2506 contract is expected to be between 3,400 and 3,600 [7]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part 1: Related Data - Futures Prices and Positions: On May 22, BU2507 (the main contract) closed at 3,539 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 0.57% from the previous day. BU2508 closed at 3,512 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan or 0.89%. BU2509 closed at 3,481 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan or 1.49%. SC2507 closed at 453.7 yuan/ton, down 16.4 yuan or 3.49%. Brent's first - line contract closed at $64.20, down $1.2 or 1.86%. The main - contract position was 188,000 lots, up 14,000 lots or 8.22%, and the trading volume was 234,000 lots, up 45,000 lots or 23.81%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 86,510 tons [2]. - Basis and Calendar Spreads: BU07 - 08 was 27 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan or 28.95%. BU08 - 09 was 31 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 39.22%. The Shandong - main - contract basis was 68 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan or 31.31%. The East China - main - contract basis was 8 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan or 79.49%. The South China - main - contract basis was - 132 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan or 30.69% [2]. - Industrial Chain Spot Prices: Shandong's low - end asphalt price was 3,450 yuan/ton, unchanged. East China's was 3,520 yuan/ton, unchanged. South China's was 3,380 yuan/ton, unchanged. Shandong's gasoline price was 7,415 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.14%. Shandong's diesel price was 6,531 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan or 0.18%. Shandong's petroleum coke price was 2,650 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan or - 1.85%. The diluted asphalt discount was - $5.3, unchanged. The exchange - rate mid - price was 7.1903, down 0.0034 or - 0.05% [2]. - Spread and Profit: Asphalt refinery profit was - 24.30 yuan/ton, up 62.24 yuan or 71.92%. The refined - oil comprehensive profit was 446.37 yuan/ton, up 65.89 yuan or 17.32%. The BU - SC crack spread was - 204.05 yuan/ton, up 147.15 yuan or 41.90%. The gasoline - spot - Brent spread was 988.82 yuan/ton, up 76.31 yuan or 8.36%. The diesel - spot - Brent spread was 896.52 yuan/ton, up 78.08 yuan or 9.54% [2]. Part 2: Market Analysis - Market Overview - Shandong Market: The mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3,590 - 3,780 yuan/ton. Demand increased slowly. With the expected increase in local supply and the weakening of the cost side, the market was wait - and - see, and high - price resources had poor transactions. Some refineries lowered prices by 10 yuan/ton [5]. - Yangtze River Delta Market: The mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3,570 - 3,590 yuan/ton. Due to the delay in funds arriving, the terminal project start - up rate was lower than expected. The demand for modified asphalt and waterproof materials was relatively stable but had limited impact on the overall market. Some refineries increased inventory and offered discounts. The market was expected to remain stable in the short term [6]. - South China Market: The mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3,380 - 3,430 yuan/ton. Some major refineries suspended production and shipments, reducing local supply and supporting prices. With more rainy days, demand was not expected to increase significantly, and prices would remain stable in the short term [6]. - Market Outlook: Oil prices are oscillating at a high level. The cost side of asphalt has support but no strong upward - driving force. Short - term supply and demand are stable. The inventory accumulation speed of the industrial chain has slowed down in the second quarter, and the inventory is at a relatively low level year - on - year, which supports the near - end price. With the expectation of limited supply and low inventory, the peak - season expectation is relatively optimistic. Asphalt performs relatively strongly among oil products, and the asphalt/oil price spread remains high. The operating range of the BU2506 contract is expected to be between 3,400 and 3,600 [7]. Part 3: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the closing price and position volume of the BU main contract, asphalt market prices in East China and Shandong, and gasoline and diesel prices of Shandong local refineries from 2021 to 2025 [9][10][13]
银河期货沥青日报-20250522
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-05-22 12:44