Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the accelerated planting progress of US corn, the price of US corn is oscillating at the bottom, and with the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, the bottom support of US corn is relatively strong. The domestic corn import profit is acceptable, and the import price from Brazil in July is 2052 yuan. The domestic corn spot price in the north is stable, while that in the north - central region is weak. The demand for domestic breeding is still weak, but the supply is low, so the domestic corn spot price is expected to rise in the short term. The market expects a reduction in this year's corn production, a decrease in grain imports, and farmers' reluctance to sell. It is estimated that the short - term support for north - central corn is around 2400 yuan/ton, and around 2150 yuan/ton in Heilongjiang. In the medium - to - long term, policy - related grain auctions are expected in June [5][8]. - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong's deep - processing enterprises has decreased, and the price of corn in Shandong is relatively stable. The spot price of corn starch in the northeast is also strong. This week, the inventory of corn starch has slightly increased, with the manufacturer's inventory at 1429000 tons, a monthly increase of 3.03% and a year - on - year increase of 37.4%. In the medium - to - long term, due to the weak demand for starch, enterprises will be in a long - term loss state, and many starch enterprises will shut down, leading to a profit recovery [9]. - In the short term, domestic corn will remain stable, and with the replenishment demand of downstream enterprises after May, corn is expected to strengthen. Corn futures will continue to oscillate narrowly, and the impact of policies will be significant in the later stage [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data - Futures Market: Among corn futures contracts, C2601 closed at 2246, down 3 points or 0.13%; C2505 closed at 2260, down 1 point or 0.04%; C2509 closed at 2351, up 4 points or 0.17%. Among corn starch futures contracts, CS2601 closed at 2652, down 2 points or 0.08%; CS2505 closed at 2650, up 7 points or 0.26%; CS2509 closed at 2740, up 2 points or 0.07% [3]. - Spot and Basis: The spot price of corn in Qinggang is 2205 yuan, down 5 yuan; the spot price of starch in Longfeng is 2750 yuan, with no change. The basis of corn in Qinggang is - 146, and the basis of starch in Longfeng is 100 [3]. - Spreads: For corn inter - delivery spreads, C01 - C05 is - 14, down 2; for starch inter - delivery spreads, CS01 - CS05 is 2, down 9; for cross - variety spreads, CS09 - C09 is 389, down 2 [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment - Corn: The planting progress of US corn is accelerating, and the price is oscillating at the bottom. The reduction of Sino - US tariffs provides strong support for the bottom of US corn. The import profit of foreign corn is acceptable. The northern port's flat - hatch price is stable, and the northeast corn spot price has started to stabilize. The supply in the north - central region has decreased, and the corn spot price is weak. The wheat price in the north - central region is stable, and wheat is gradually substituting for corn. The domestic breeding demand is still weak, but the supply is low, so the corn spot price will rise in the short term. It is expected that the short - term support for north - central corn is around 2400 yuan/ton, and around 2150 yuan/ton in Heilongjiang. In the medium - to - long term, policy - related grain auctions are expected in June [5][8]. - Starch: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong's deep - processing enterprises has decreased, and the price of corn in Shandong is relatively stable. The spot price of corn starch in the northeast is also strong. This week, the inventory of corn starch has slightly increased. The starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream replenishment. In the medium - to - long term, due to the weak demand for starch, enterprises will be in a long - term loss state, and many starch enterprises will shut down, leading to a profit recovery. It is estimated that the short - term support for 07 starch futures is around 2650 [9]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral Trading: Domestic 07 corn futures will continue to oscillate narrowly, and short - term long positions can be attempted [11]. - Arbitrage Trading: Hold a position of buying spot and shorting 07 corn futures. Expand the spread between 09 corn and starch futures when the spread is low, and conduct oscillating operations [14]. 3.4 Corn Options - Option Strategy: Enterprises with spot positions can sell corn call options and hold them [15]. 3.5 Relevant Attachments - The attachments include charts of corn spot prices in various regions, corn 09 contract basis, corn 9 - 1 spread, corn starch 9 - 1 spread, corn starch 09 contract basis, and corn starch 09 contract spread, which visually show the price trends and relationships of different contracts and varieties [17][20][22].
玉米淀粉日报-20250522
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-05-22 12:43