银河期货甲醇日报-20250522

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report indicates that the international methanol device operating rate is oscillating at a high level, with some devices in Iran experiencing short - term shutdowns this week. The daily output has dropped from 38,000 tons to around 31,000 tons but remains high. The import volume in June is expected to increase significantly to over 1.3 million tons. Downstream demand is stable, and as the arrival volume increases, port inventories are starting to accumulate. Meanwhile, due to the continued decline in domestic coal prices, coal - to - methanol profits have expanded to a historical high, and the scale of spring maintenance is expected to be less than anticipated, resulting in a continuous and ample domestic supply. Currently, the procurement of CTO in the inland region has ended, and the inventory of inland enterprises has started to rise, alleviating the tight supply situation. Additionally, downstream resistance to high prices has led to a continuous decline in inland auction prices. However, trade frictions have eased, limiting the downward space for commodities. With the intensifying geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and a sharp rebound in crude oil prices last night, it is expected to drive the energy - chemical sector to be temporarily stronger. Methanol is still recommended to be shorted on rebounds rather than chased on the downside [6]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Futures Market: The futures market oscillated downward, closing at 2241 (-25/-1.1%) [4]. - Spot Market: In production areas, prices range from 1980 - 2160 yuan/ton; in consumption areas, prices range from 2200 - 2270 yuan/ton; in the southwest region, prices are 2230 - 2240 yuan/ton; and at ports, prices range from 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton [4]. Important Information - This week (20250516 - 0522), China's methanol production was 1,961,475 tons, a decrease of 29,580 tons from last week. The device capacity utilization rate was 87.04%, a 1.62% decrease from the previous week [5]. Logic Analysis - Supply Side: The coal - mine operating rate in the main coal - producing areas in the northwest has rebounded, but demand is weak, and raw coal prices are oscillating. The auction prices of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest have continued to decline. The profit of coal - to - methanol is around 600 yuan/ton, and the methanol operating rate remains stable at a high level, with a continuous and ample domestic supply [6]. - Import Side: The operating rate of international methanol devices has declined from a high level, the US - dollar price has slightly decreased, the import premium has narrowed, some devices in Iran have had short - term shutdowns, the non - Iranian operating rate is stable, prices in Europe and the US are diverging, the internal - external price difference has been repaired, and the Southeast Asian re - export window has closed. Iran has loaded 740,000 tons in May, and Iranian tenders have been gradually concluded. Some non - Iranian cargoes have been redirected to China, with an expected import volume of 1.35 - 1.4 million tons in June [6]. - Demand Side: Traditional downstream industries have entered the off - season, and the operating rate has declined. The operating rate of MTO devices has been hovering at a low level, with some MTO devices operating at less - than - full capacity or shutting down [6]. - Inventory: With the gradual recovery of imports, stable demand, and import premiums, port inventories have bottomed out, and the basis has been consolidating. Inland enterprise inventories have started to rise [6]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short on rebounds [7]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [9]. - Options: Sell call options [9].