银河期货农产品日报-20250522

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Apple Daily Report, May 22, 2024 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] - Contact: liuqiannan_qh@chinastock.com.cn [2] Group 2: Market Information Spot Prices - Fuji Apple Price Index: 108.50, up 0.24 from the next working day [3] - 6 Kinds of Fruit Average Wholesale Price: 7.67, down 0.05 from the next working day [3] Futures Prices - AP01: 7469, down 150 from yesterday's close [3] - AP05: 7636, down 130 from yesterday's close [3] - AP10: 7552, down 120 from yesterday's close [3] Basis - Qixia First and Second - Grade 80 - AP01: 731, up 150 from the previous trading day [3] - Qixia First and Second - Grade 80 - AP05: 564, up 130 from the previous trading day [3] - Qixia First and Second - Grade 80 - AP10: 648, up 120 from the previous trading day [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Apple Market News - Cold - Storage Inventory: As of May 16, 2025, the cold - storage inventory in major apple - producing areas was 2.2886 million tons, a decrease of 0.3791 million tons from last week, at a five - year low [4] - Export and Import: In April 2025, fresh apple exports were about 72,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24.41% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.77%. Imports were 19,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 102.29% and a year - on - year increase of 63.56%. The cumulative imports from January to April 2025 were 32,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 83.87% [7] - Market Price: The mainstream apple prices in the origin remained stable. Storage merchants were actively selling, and market traders mainly purchased as needed. The overall wholesale market was stable [7] - Profit: The profit of Qixia 80 first and second - grade storage merchants in the 2024 - 2025 production season was 0.9 yuan per catty, up 0.2 yuan per catty from last week [7] - Spot Price: In Qixia, Shandong, the demand for apple slice - red goods was good. The prices of different grades of apples remained stable [8] Trading Logic - The apple cold - storage inventory this year is at a low level since 2019. Before the new apples are on the market, the supply is likely to be tight. The current market sales are okay, and the spot price is strong, which supports the apple price. In addition, the windy and hot - dry weather in the western producing areas in April affected apple fruit - setting in some areas. It is expected that the apple trend will continue to be slightly stronger in a volatile manner [9] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Build long positions in AP10 at low prices in the short term [10] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [11] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [12] Group 4: Related Attachments - The report includes 10 related charts, such as the price of Qixia first and second - grade paper - bag 80 apples, the price of Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bag 70 apples, AP contract basis, and apple arrival volume in wholesale markets [16][18][24]