银河期货有色金属衍生品日报-20250522

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are consolidating at high levels. The market may show a long - term back structure. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral, arbitrage, and option trading [4][7][8]. - Alumina prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term. Pay attention to the progress of bauxite suspension in Guinea, bauxite price expectations, and domestic alumina capacity changes. For now, arbitrage and option trading should be on hold [14][15][16]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate. Consider a positive spread opportunity for 06 - 09 contracts, and wait and see for option trading [21][24]. - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. It is advisable to try short - selling at high prices on a light position. Arbitrage and option trading should be on hold [27][28]. - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. Be vigilant about the impact of capital on lead prices. Arbitrage and option trading should be on hold [34][35]. - Nickel prices are expected to weaken with fluctuations. Consider a range double - selling strategy for options, and wait and see for arbitrage [38][40][43]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage [47][48][49]. - Tin prices are expected to adjust with fluctuations in the short term. Pay attention to the supply situation of the ore end. Wait and see for options [53][54][55]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to decline. Hold short positions, sell out - of - the - money call options, and conduct reverse spreads for Si2511 and Si2512 [59][60]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to be bearish. Hold short positions for the PS2507 contract, sell PS2507 - C - 40000, and wait and see for arbitrage [63][65]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage [68][69][70]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Copper: The Shanghai Copper 2506 contract closed at 77,920 yuan, down 0.22%. The Shanghai Copper index reduced its position by 6,043 lots to 525,000 lots. Spot premiums in different regions showed varying degrees of decline [2]. - Alumina: The Alumina 2509 contract rose 32 yuan/ton to 3,216 yuan/ton, up 1.01%. Positions increased by 19,583 lots to 511,400 lots. Spot prices in various regions increased [9]. - Aluminum: The Shanghai Aluminum 2506 contract rose 55 yuan/ton to 20,270 yuan/ton. Positions increased by 3,682 lots to 520,000 lots. Spot prices in different regions increased [18]. - Zinc: The Shanghai Zinc 2507 contract fell 0.63% to 22,245 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Zinc index increased its position by 1,119 lots to 227,500 lots. Spot prices in Shanghai showed a slight improvement in trading [26]. - Lead: The Shanghai Lead 2507 contract fell 1.21% to 16,685 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Lead index increased its position by 7,829 lots to 73,000 lots. Spot prices decreased [30]. - Nickel: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2506 rose 40 to 123,400 yuan/ton. Index positions decreased by 687 lots. Spot premiums remained unchanged [37]. - Stainless Steel: The main contract of stainless steel SS2507 rose 5 to 12,880 yuan/ton. Index positions decreased by 15,580 lots. Spot prices remained stable [45]. - Tin: The main contract of Shanghai Tin closed at 264,780 yuan/ton, down 2,320 yuan/ton or 0.87%. Positions decreased by 4,639 lots to 54,185 lots. Spot prices decreased [52]. - Industrial Silicon: The main contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly and strengthened slightly, closing at 7,880 yuan/ton, down 0.19%. Spot prices generally decreased [56]. - Polysilicon: The main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated and strengthened, closing at 36,080 yuan/ton, up 1.14%. Spot prices remained stable [61]. - Lithium Carbonate: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose 5 to 12,880 yuan/ton. Index positions decreased by 15,580 lots. Spot prices remained stable [66]. 3.2 Important Information - Copper: Freeport Indonesia's Manyar smelter has resumed operation ahead of schedule and is expected to reach full - capacity production in December. As of May 22, copper inventories in mainstream regions in China increased slightly week - on - week, and it is expected that supply and demand will be weak next week [3]. - Alumina: The Guinea Axis mining area has been shut down, and the recovery time is unknown. The Guinea transitional authorities have designated multiple mining rights as strategic reserve areas. Alumina production increased week - on - week, and inventories decreased [10][12]. - Aluminum: EU - US trade negotiations are still uncertain. Global primary aluminum production in April 2025 was 6.033 million tons. China's primary aluminum production in April was estimated to be 3.621 million tons. Aluminum inventories decreased, and imports reached a record high [19][20]. - Zinc: As of May 22, zinc inventories in seven major regions in China decreased week - on - week [27]. - Lead: Due to continuous losses in the secondary lead smelting enterprises, waste battery purchase prices in many regions have been significantly reduced. As of May 22, lead inventories in five major regions decreased [31][33]. - Nickel: In March 2025, the global refined nickel production was 317,300 tons, with a supply surplus of 39,400 tons. From January to March, the supply surplus was 123,000 tons [38]. - Stainless Steel: In April, China's stainless steel exports decreased by 5% month - on - month, and imports increased by 10% month - on - month. As of May 22, stainless steel inventories increased slightly [46]. - Tin: In April, the production of integrated circuits, electronic computers, and washing machines showed different trends. African tin mines are gradually resuming production [53]. - Industrial Silicon: The US has launched anti - dumping and counter - subsidy investigations on imported silicon metal from multiple countries [57][58]. - Polysilicon: In April, China's total social electricity consumption was 772.1 billion kWh, up 4.7% year - on - year [62]. 3.3 Logic Analysis - Copper: The US is negotiating tariffs, and the negotiation of copper concentrate processing fees is approaching. The spread between Comex and LME is driving the flow of electrolytic copper. Although there is short - term pressure on spreads after delivery, the inventory is still far below the safety level, and demand remains resilient [4]. - Alumina: The Guinea policy may reduce the annual supply surplus of bauxite, and bauxite prices are expected to rise. Alumina production increased, but inventories decreased. Attention should be paid to the resumption of alumina production capacity [13][14]. - Aluminum: The macro - environment is stable. LME aluminum inventories are decreasing, aluminum imports are increasing, and consumption is growing. Aluminum inventories are at a low level, which may support the price difference [21]. - Zinc: The market is in a state of supply and demand balance, and inventories are decreasing [27]. - Lead: Secondary lead smelters are still in a loss state, which supports lead prices, but the off - season demand restricts the upward space of prices [34]. - Nickel: In the first quarter, there was a surplus of refined nickel. Although nickel ore prices support nickel prices, the supply is expected to increase after May, and demand will enter the off - season [38]. - Stainless Steel: The supply of 304 may be tight, but demand is mainly based on rigid needs. Spot inventories are difficult to digest, and prices will fluctuate widely in the short term [47]. - Tin: African tin mines are resuming production, and the supply - demand tension is expected to ease. The demand side has not improved significantly, and prices are mainly driven by the macro - environment [53]. - Industrial Silicon: Demand is weak, and supply is expected to increase. Inventories are high, which suppresses prices [59]. - Polysilicon: In May, polysilicon production and silicon wafer production decreased, and inventories are expected to decrease. The spot price is weak, and the 07 contract is facing a game between fundamentals and delivery contradictions [63][65]. - Lithium Carbonate: The supply of 304 may be tight, but demand is mainly based on rigid needs. Spot inventories are difficult to digest, and prices will fluctuate widely in the short term [68]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - Copper: Wait and see for unilateral, arbitrage, and option trading [4][7][8]. - Alumina: It is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and option trading [15][16]. - Aluminum: It is expected to fluctuate. Consider a positive spread opportunity for 06 - 09 contracts, and wait and see for option trading [24]. - Zinc: Fluctuate within a range. Try short - selling at high prices on a light position. Wait and see for arbitrage and option trading [28]. - Lead: Fluctuate within a range. Be vigilant about the impact of capital on prices. Wait and see for arbitrage and option trading [35]. - Nickel: Weaken with fluctuations. Consider a range double - selling strategy for options, and wait and see for arbitrage [41][42][43]. - Stainless Steel: Be strongly volatile in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage [48][49]. - Tin: Adjust with fluctuations in the short term. Pay attention to the supply situation of the ore end. Wait and see for options [54][55]. - Industrial Silicon: Hold short positions, sell out - of - the - money call options, and conduct reverse spreads for Si2511 and Si2512 [60]. - Polysilicon: Hold short positions for the PS2507 contract, sell PS2507 - C - 40000, and wait and see for arbitrage [65]. - Lithium Carbonate: Be strongly volatile in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage [69][70].