银河期货贵金属衍生品日报-20250522

Group 1: Report Information - Name: Precious Metals Derivatives Daily Report [2] - Date: May 22, 2025 [2] - Institute: Commodity Research Institute, Galaxy Futures [2] Group 2: Market Review - Precious Metals: London Gold traded around $3314 and London Silver around $33.4. SHFE Gold rose 1.22% to 780.1 yuan/gram, and SHFE Silver rose 1.06% to 8301 yuan/kg [3] - Dollar Index: Traded around 99.7 [4] - 10 - year US Treasury Yield: Returned to a high, trading around 4.58% [5] - RMB Exchange Rate: Opened high and closed low, trading around 7.205 [6] Group 3: Important News - Trump Administration: US Commerce Secretary hopes to reach trade agreements with major partners before tariff suspension expires this summer; EU plans to propose a trade proposal to the US [7] - Fed Observation: Probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in June is 94.6%, and 73.1% in July. Market bets on two rate - cuts in September and December [7] - Geopolitical Conflict: Israel is preparing to strike Iran's nuclear facilities if US - Iran talks fail [7] - US Treasury Auction: 20 - year Treasury auction on May 21 had a bid - to - cover ratio of 2.46 (previous 2.63) and a yield of 5.047% (previous 4.81%) [7] Group 4: Logical Analysis - Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating, and the weak 20 - year Treasury auction verified market doubts about US Treasuries. Fed officials' concerns about tariff - induced stagflation and Middle - East geopolitical issues gave precious metals upward momentum [9] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Single - side: Hold long positions based on the 5 - day moving average [10] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [11] - Options: Take profit on the strategy of buying out - of - the - money call options [12] Group 6: Data Reference - Actual Yield and Precious Metals: Charts show the relationship between actual yield and London Gold and Silver [13][14][16] - Dollar Index and Precious Metals: Charts show the relationship between the dollar index and London Gold and Silver [19] - Domestic and Overseas Futures: Charts show the trends of domestic and overseas gold and silver futures [15][17][20] - Futures and Spot: Charts show the relationship between futures and spot prices of gold and silver [22][24] - Domestic - Overseas Spread: Charts show the domestic gold futures premium and domestic - overseas silver futures spread [25][29][30] - Gold - Silver Ratio: Charts show the gold - silver ratio on the SHFE and Comex [35][36] - ETF Holdings: Charts show the holdings of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF [38][41] - Futures Open Interest: Charts show the open interest of gold and silver futures [43][44][50] - Futures Inventory: Charts show the inventory of SHFE gold and silver [46][47] - Futures Volume: Charts show the trading volume of SHFE gold and silver [48][49] - TD Data: Charts show the deferred fees, delivery volume of gold and silver TD [52][53][58] - Treasury Yield and Inflation: Charts show the relationship between nominal interest rate, inflation expectation, real interest rate, and US Treasury yields [56][57]