银河期货棉花、棉纱日报-20250522

Report Overview - Report Name: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Daily Report - Date: May 22, 2024 - Researcher: Liu Qiannan 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The market fundamentals have changed little, but the macro - level is relatively optimistic. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The future trend of US cotton is likely to be slightly stronger in a volatile manner, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a stronger trend under the influence of the macro - environment [7][8] - For the cotton yarn industry, the spot market trading is okay, but the price is basically stable. The downstream lacks strong orders, and market confidence is insufficient [10] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information - Futures Disk: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, CF09, and CY09 contracts decreased by 5, 10, 10, and 15 respectively; the trading volumes of CF01, CF05, CF09, and CY09 decreased by 8315, 238, 124038, and 66 respectively; the open interest of CF01, CF05, and CF09 increased by 2298, 135, and 4227 respectively, while that of CY09 decreased by 16 [3] - Spot Price: CCIndex3128B increased by 17 yuan/ton to 14567 yuan/ton; Cot A increased by 0.65 cents/pound to 78.25 cents/pound; CY IndexC32S decreased by 550 to 20520; FCY IndexC33S decreased by 113 to 21787; Indian S - 6 decreased by 100 to 54200; polyester staple fiber increased by 70 to 7450; pure polyester yarn T32S remained unchanged at 11200; viscose staple fiber remained unchanged at 12800; viscose yarn R30S remained unchanged at 17250 [3] - Spread: In cotton inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread was - 20 (down 15), the 5 - 9 spread was 75 (up 20), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 55 (down 5). In cotton yarn inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread was 0 (unchanged), the 5 - 9 spread was - 19695 (up 15), and the 9 - 1 spread was 19695 (down 15). The CY01 - CF01 spread was - 13485 (up 5), CY05 - CF05 was - 13505 (down 10), and CY09 - CF09 was 6265 (down 5). The 1% tariff internal - external cotton spread was 668 (down 96), the sliding - scale internal - external cotton spread was 17 (down 61), and the internal - external yarn spread was - 1267 (down 437) [3] 3.2 Market News and Views - Cotton Market News: From May 15 - 21, 2025, the weekly rainfall in India's cotton - producing areas (93.6%) was 21.5mm, 17.5mm higher than normal and 11.9mm higher than last year. From March 1 - May 21, 2025, the cumulative rainfall was 64mm, 37.8mm higher than normal. As of May 20, ICE's deliverable No. 2 cotton futures contracts increased to 39796 bales. As of the week of May 18, in Texas, the weighted average of very short + short surface soil moisture was 54% (17 percentage points higher year - on - year), and the underground was 59% (10 percentage points higher year - on - year). The cotton planting progress reached 35%, 1 percentage point higher than last year and 5 percentage points higher than normal [6] - Trading Logic: The market fundamentals have changed little, but the macro - level is relatively optimistic, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend [7] - Trading Strategy: - Single - side: The future trend of US cotton is likely to be slightly stronger in a volatile manner, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a stronger trend under the influence of the macro - environment [8] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [9] - Options: Wait and see [10] - Cotton Yarn Industry News: The spot market trading of pure cotton yarn is okay, but the price is basically stable. The downstream lacks strong orders, and market confidence is insufficient. Spinning mills' profits are at break - even or slightly profitable. Zhengzhou cotton futures have been strong recently, but spinning mills have not continuously raised cotton yarn prices, and the grey fabric price is also stable. Weaving mills with orders still purchase as needed, and some demand has weakened. Weaving mills are currently on the sidelines [10] 3.3 Options - Volatility: The 120 - day HV of cotton today is 10.6050, with volatility slightly lower than the previous day. The implied volatility of CF509 - C - 13400 is 9.9%, CF509 - P - 12600 is 12.2%, and CF509 - P - 12200 is 14.3% [12] - Strategy: Wait and see [16] 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides 8 figures, including the internal - external cotton price spread under 1% tariff, cotton basis in January, May, and September, CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01 spreads, and CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 spreads [20][21][25][27]