银河期货鸡蛋日报-20250522

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The overall supply of eggs is expected to remain sufficient, with a high inventory of laying hens. After the egg price has fallen to the current level, there are signs of stability in the near term. It is recommended to close out previous short positions and wait and see [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Information - Today, the average price in the main production areas is 2.98 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.03 yuan per catty from the previous trading day. The average price in the main sales areas is 3.17 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.03 yuan per catty from the previous trading day. Most of the mainstream egg prices across the country remained stable today [3][6]. - In April, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.329 billion, an increase of 0.11 billion from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. The monthly output of laying hen chicks in the sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in April was 46.985 million, a month - on - month increase of 1.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. Without considering delayed culling and concentrated culling, the estimated inventory of laying hens from May to August 2025 is 1.332 billion, 1.337 billion, 1.345 billion, and 1.349 billion respectively [7]. - In the week of May 16, the number of culled laying hens in the main production areas was 18.56 million, an increase of 7.5% from the previous week. As of the week of May 15, the average culling age of culled hens was 534 days, a decrease of 1 day from the previous week [7]. - As of the week of May 15, the egg sales volume in the representative sales areas was 8,716 tons, an increase of 1.4% from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.92 days, a decrease of 0.27 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1 day, a decrease of 0.33 days from the previous week [8]. - As of May 16, the average weekly profit per catty of eggs was - 0.12 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.06 yuan per catty from the previous week. On May 9, the expected profit of laying hen farming was 20.15 yuan per bird, an increase of 0.8 yuan per catty from the previous week [8]. - Today, the price of culled hens across the country decreased, and the average price in the main production areas was 4.99 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.04 yuan per catty from the previous trading day [9]. 3.2 Trading Logic The overall supply of eggs is expected to remain sufficient, and the inventory of laying hens is high. After the egg price has fallen to the current level, there are signs of stability in the near term. It is recommended to close out previous short positions and wait and see [10]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see [11]. - Arbitrage: Consider going long on the August contract and short on the September contract [12]. - Options: Wait and see [13].