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Dexus：德克斯集团派对提前结束？基金策略陷入困境-20250523
Ubs Securities·2025-05-23 00:45

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Dexus (DXS) with a 12-month price target of A8.70,downfromaprevioustargetofA8.70, down from a previous target of A9.02 [7][26]. Core Insights - Dexus is facing challenges including potential forced liquidation of the Dexus Bloc due to investor disputes, which could impact management fees and annual FFO [2][3]. - The company is also dealing with approximately A3billioninredemptionsanddelaysindevelopmentprojects,whichmayaffectitsfinancialoutlook[3].−Despitetheseheadwinds,Dexusisviewedasastrongplayerintheofficemarketrecovery,benefitingfromoperationalimprovementsandpositivemarketsentiment[4].FinancialSummary−ForecastednetrentalincomeisexpectedtodeclinefromA3 billion in redemptions and delays in development projects, which may affect its financial outlook [3]. - Despite these headwinds, Dexus is viewed as a strong player in the office market recovery, benefiting from operational improvements and positive market sentiment [4]. Financial Summary - Forecasted net rental income is expected to decline from A808 million in FY22 to A686millioninFY25E,withfurtherdeclinesprojectedinFY26E[6][8].−EBITDAisprojectedtodecreasefromA686 million in FY25E, with further declines projected in FY26E [6][8]. - EBITDA is projected to decrease from A868 million in FY22 to A775millioninFY25E,reflectinganegativetrendinprofitability[6][8].−ThereportanticipatesadeclineinFFOintoFY26E,withareductionintheFMEBITmultiplefrom14xto11x[3][5].ValuationMetrics−Theprice−to−earnings(P/E)ratioisprojectedtobearound11.2xforFY25E,withasustainabledividendyieldof5.4775 million in FY25E, reflecting a negative trend in profitability [6][8]. - The report anticipates a decline in FFO into FY26E, with a reduction in the FM EBIT multiple from 14x to 11x [3][5]. Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be around 11.2x for FY25E, with a sustainable dividend yield of 5.4% [4][9]. - The net asset value (NAV) per share is estimated to be A8.80 for FY26E, indicating a discount to book value [9]. - The forecast stock return is estimated at 29.7%, combining price appreciation and dividend yield [10]. Company Overview - Dexus is a leading real asset manager with A44billioninthird−partyfundsundermanagement(FUM)andabalancesheetportfolioofapproximatelyA44 billion in third-party funds under management (FUM) and a balance sheet portfolio of approximately A17 billion, primarily in office and industrial real estate [11].