多家报告利空，原糖短期承压

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for sugar is "sideways" [1]. - The investment rating for cotton is "sideways" [1]. Core Viewpoints - For sugar, due to the significant economic benefits of sugar crop cultivation, along with positive support from national policies and sugar - making enterprises, farmers' planting enthusiasm has increased, leading to a steady growth in sugar crop planting area. However, early drought in Guangxi affected the emergence of ratoon sugarcane and the planting of new sugarcane, limiting the growth of sugar production. Sugar consumption is expected to remain stable or increase slightly, the supply - demand gap is basically stable, and imports are expected to stay at 5 million tons. Short - term strategy is to wait and see [1]. - For cotton, Xinjiang's cotton target price subsidy policy remains stable, and cotton farmers' planting enthusiasm is high, with a slight increase in planting area. Inland cotton areas have seen a continuous decline in planting area due to low comparative benefits and difficulties in mechanization promotion. During the sowing and emergence period, the climate in major producing areas was favorable, and the expected yield per hectare is 2,172 kg (144.8 kg per mu), the same as last year. Total cotton production is expected to be 6.25 million tons, a 1.4% increase from last year. Affected by excessive US tariffs, cotton consumption is expected to be weak, but there is still some uncertainty. The expected cotton consumption in the new season is 7.4 million tons, a decrease of 200,000 tons from last year, and imports are also adjusted down to 1.4 million tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons. Short - term strategy is to wait and see [1]. Data Summary Price and Spread Data - Sugar: On May 21 - 22, 2025, the price of US sugar decreased by 2.03%, the spot price of sugar in Nanning increased by 0.16%, and in Kunming by 0.17%. The spreads SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09, and SR09 - 01 all decreased, and the sugar 01, 05, and 09 basis all increased [3]. - Cotton: On May 21 - 22, 2025, the price of US cotton decreased by 0.58%, the cotton index 328 increased by 0.37%, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang increased by 0.35%. The spreads CF01 - 05, CF05 - 09, and CF09 - 01 changed, and the cotton 01, 05, and 09 basis all increased [3]. Import and Profit Data - The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged on May 21 - 22, 2025, and the sugar import profit also remained unchanged [3]. Option and Volatility Data - For sugar option SR509C5900, the implied volatility is 0.0897, and the historical volatility of the underlying futures SR509 is 9.3. For cotton option CF509C13400, the implied volatility is 0.099, and the historical volatility of the underlying futures CF509 is 12.68 [3]. Warehouse Receipt Data - On May 21 - 22, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 0.55%, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 0.40% [3].