镍、不锈钢：短期仍以震荡为主

Group 1: Report Title and Team - The report focuses on nickel and stainless steel, written by the New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team of Nanhua Futures, including Xia Yingying and Guan Chenghan [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The short - term nickel and stainless steel market will mainly fluctuate. There is no obvious upward driving force in the market logic, the impact of macro - sentiment has dissipated, and spot transactions are relatively moderate. Nickel ore supply is expected to increase, the impact of the rainy season in the Philippines is gradually weakening, and the price bottom has loosened. The nickel - iron price has stopped falling and rebounded, which may bring some support. The new energy chain may show a situation of weak supply and demand in the short term, and the price is expected to stabilize. Attention should be paid to the impact of opening nickel contracts to foreign capital and subsequent tariff policies [3] Group 4: Price Forecast and Management Strategies Nickel Price Forecast - The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 119,000 - 129,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 13.67% and a historical percentile of 0.4% [2] Nickel Management Strategies - Inventory Management: When product sales prices may fall and inventory has impairment risks, short Shanghai nickel futures according to inventory levels to lock in profits and hedge against spot price declines (60% hedge ratio), and sell call options (50% hedge ratio) [2] - Procurement Management: When a company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedge ratio based on the procurement plan [2] Group 5: Factors Affecting the Market Positive Factors - China and the US have reached a tariff agreement - The Philippine government plans to ban nickel ore exports in June 2025 - The new resource tax in Indonesia took effect on April 26, raising the overall cost line [4] Negative Factors - At the end of the rainy season in the Philippines, nickel ore supply is gradually increasing - The support of the MHP nickel sulfate link has weakened - Stainless steel inventories remain at a high level, and demand shows no obvious improvement [4] Group 6: Market Data Nickel Market Data - The latest price of Shanghai nickel main continuous contract is 123,400 yuan/ton, with a 0% month - on - month change; the trading volume is 101,218 lots, the open interest is 50,453 lots, and the warehouse receipt volume is 22,562 tons, a 1.96% month - on - month decrease [5] Stainless Steel Market Data - The latest price of the stainless steel main continuous contract is 12,880 yuan/ton, with a 0% month - on - month change; the trading volume is 117,615 lots, the open interest is 123,141 lots, and the warehouse receipt volume is 141,742 tons, a 0.92% month - on - month decrease [6] Inventory Data - Domestic social nickel inventory is 44,151 tons, an increase of 63 tons; LME nickel inventory is 200,910 tons, a decrease of 876 tons; stainless steel social inventory is 980.7 tons, a decrease of 8.4 tons; nickel pig iron inventory is 29,554.5 tons, an increase of 1,158 tons [7]