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宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250523
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-05-23 01:33

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2) Core Views of the Report - The sentiment in the domestic soybean market has improved, with short - term soybean futures prices expected to be oscillating stronger, but the rebound space is restricted by supply pressure [5]. - The international oil price decline has an impact on the entire oil market. The short - term sentiment disturbance in the oil market has increased, and the futures prices of palm oil are expected to be oscillating weaker [7]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Bean Meal (M) - Price Trend: The intraday view is oscillating stronger, the mid - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating stronger [5]. - Core Logic: The combined weather themes in North and South American soybean producing areas have boosted the market's bullish sentiment. The rise in US soybean futures prices has lifted the domestic soybean market. Although there is an expectation of improved supply in the domestic market, the linkage between the domestic and foreign markets has been restored. The short - term soybean futures prices are oscillating stronger, but the rebound space is restricted by supply pressure [5]. b. Palm Oil (P) - Price Trend: The intraday view is oscillating weaker, the mid - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weaker [7]. - Core Logic: The decline in international oil prices has affected the entire oil market. Southeast Asian palm oil production and demand are both increasing. Whether the exports of Malaysian palm oil can remain strong determines whether the inventory will continue to accumulate. With the rotation in the oil sector, palm oil will receive indirect support from rapeseed oil. The short - term sentiment disturbance in the oil market has increased, and the futures prices are oscillating weaker [7]. c. Other Related Factors - For Bean Meal 2509: The influencing factors include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand [6]. - For Soybean Oil 2509: The influencing factors are US tariff policy, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic raw material supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6]. - For Palm 2509: The influencing factors involve Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [6].