五矿期货早报有色金属-20250523

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market is complex. For copper, the supply of raw materials remains tight, but the decline in consumption intensity may lead to price fluctuations. For aluminum, the rapid depletion of domestic aluminum ingot inventories provides support, but the seasonal weakness in consumption restricts the upside potential. Lead prices are weak due to limited recycled raw material inventories and the decline in scrap battery prices. Zinc prices face a certain downward risk as the inventory accumulates. Tin prices may decline due to the expected increase in supply and weak demand. Nickel prices are expected to remain volatile. Lithium carbonate prices are likely to fluctuate, and the short - term strategy for alumina is to wait and see. Stainless steel prices have certain resilience, and the focus is on raw material price fluctuations and downstream demand recovery [1][3][4][5][7][8][10][13][15] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Price Movement: LME copper rose 0.34% to $9519/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 77820 yuan/ton. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 1300 tons to 166525 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts continued to decrease to 32000 tons. - Market Situation: Domestic social inventory increased slightly, bonded area inventory decreased, and the spot premium in Shanghai decreased. The import loss of domestic copper spot remained above 400 yuan/ton, and the scrap - refined copper price difference narrowed. - Price Outlook: The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the price support is strong. However, due to the decline in consumption intensity, the price is expected to be volatile. The operating range of SHFE copper is 77200 - 78400 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper is $9400 - 9600/ton [1] Aluminum - Price Movement: LME aluminum fell 0.77% to $2456/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20160 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased rapidly, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased to 58000 tons. - Market Situation: The trading volume in the spot market improved, and the inventory depletion rate accelerated. - Price Outlook: The rapid depletion of inventory provides support, but the seasonal weakness in consumption restricts the upside potential. The operating range of SHFE aluminum is 20000 - 20260 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum is $2430 - 2480/ton [3] Lead - Price Movement: SHFE lead index fell 1.29% to 16681 yuan/ton, and LME lead fell to $1955/ton. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory increased to 58200 tons. - Market Situation: The inventory of recycled raw materials is limited, the profit of recycled lead enterprises is under pressure, and the start - up rate continues to decline. - Price Outlook: Short - term lead prices are weak [4] Zinc - Price Movement: SHFE zinc index fell 0.72% to 22256 yuan/ton, and LME zinc fell to $2676/ton. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 83800 tons, and the zinc ingot inventory increased slightly. - Market Situation: In April, the export volume of unforged zinc alloy increased significantly, mainly flowing to Taiwan. The port inventory of zinc concentrate continued to rise, and the processing fee increased again. - Price Outlook: In the medium term, as the social inventory of zinc ingots accumulates, zinc prices still face a certain downward risk [5] Tin - Price Movement: SHFE tin main contract fell 1.10% to 264780 yuan/ton. - Inventory: SHFE registered warehouse receipts decreased by 14 tons to 8056 tons, and LME inventory decreased by 5 tons to 2665 tons. - Market Situation: The tin mines are gradually resuming production, and the high price suppresses the downstream restocking willingness. - Price Outlook: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The price center may move down. The operating range of SHFE tin is 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton, and that of LME tin is $30000 - 33000/ton [6][7] Nickel - Price Movement: SHFE nickel fell 0.53% to 122890 yuan/ton, and LME nickel fell 0.90% to $15490/ton. - Inventory: LME nickel inventory decreased by 86 tons to 200910 tons. - Market Situation: The price of nickel ore is stable, the price of nickel iron has stabilized and rebounded, and the price of intermediate products remains high. - Price Outlook: The short - term rebound in nickel iron prices provides support, and nickel prices are expected to remain volatile. The operating range of SHFE nickel is 120000 - 130000 yuan/ton, and that of LME nickel is $15000 - 16300/ton [8] Lithium Carbonate - Price Movement: The MMLC index remained unchanged at 62657 yuan, and the LC2507 contract rose 1.70% to 62140 yuan. - Inventory: The domestic lithium carbonate production decreased by 3.2% week - on - week, and the SMM weekly inventory decreased by 141 tons. - Market Situation: The disk price is in the cost - intensive area, and there is selling pressure above. - Price Outlook: Lithium carbonate prices are likely to fluctuate. The operating range of the LC2507 contract is 61100 - 63200 yuan/ton [10] Alumina - Price Movement: The alumina index fell 1.05% to 3207 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 9900 tons to 163600 tons. - Market Situation: The spot prices in various regions increased, and the overseas FOB price remained stable. - Price Outlook: Due to the continuous disturbances in the mine and supply sides, the short - term strategy is to wait and see. The operating range of the AO2509 contract is 2900 - 3500 yuan/ton [12][13] Stainless Steel - Price Movement: The stainless steel main contract rose 0.23% to 12870 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The futures inventory decreased by 1314 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.42%. - Market Situation: The prices of raw materials were stable, and the long - term contract procurement price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Qing Shan Group remained unchanged. - Price Outlook: The 304 variety has certain resilience, and the focus is on raw material price fluctuations and downstream demand recovery [15]