国泰君安期货所长早读-20250523

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The central bank conducted a 500 billion yuan MLF operation on May 23, resulting in a net injection of 375 billion yuan, which will increase banks' credit - lending ability [8]. - The US soybean market is in a range - bound state, with factors on both the supply and demand sides that could break the current range [9]. - Manganese silicon showed a short - term upward trend driven by sentiment but is under long - term pressure from fundamentals [11]. - Asphalt is at a high cracking level, and it is advisable to wait and see for the moment [12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Monetary Policy - On May 23, the central bank carried out a 500 billion yuan MLF operation with a 1 - year term. After this operation, the MLF achieved a net injection of 375 billion yuan, as the maturity volume this month was 125 billion yuan. This is the third consecutive month of increased MLF roll - overs, with net injections of 63 billion yuan and 500 billion yuan in March and April respectively [8]. 3.2 Commodity Markets 3.2.1 US Soybeans - The US soybean market is in a range of 950 - 1150 cents per bushel. On the supply side, factors such as a reduction in planting area or a decline in yield could push prices above 1200 cents per bushel. On the demand side, a clear Sino - US trade outlook and a large - scale return of Chinese purchases could also lead to a significant price increase. If Chinese demand does not return and shifts entirely to South America, US soybean prices may fall to around 950 cents per bushel [9][10]. 3.2.2 Manganese Silicon - Manganese silicon rose by 3.84% to close at 5998 yuan per ton, driven by information from the South African ore end. However, the fundamentals are relatively weak. The manganese ore port inventory is gradually accumulating, and Australian ore is expected to resume shipments in June, which may squeeze the current manganese ore market. On the supply - demand side, the main production areas have no production - cut plans, and inventory and warehouse - receipt inventory are at relatively high levels. In the long - term, it may continue a weak trend [11]. 3.2.3 Asphalt - The release of asphalt demand is not ideal. Refineries' production control has kept northern inventories at a low level, while southern inventories are gradually increasing, with the greatest pressure in South China. In the short - term, low production may support northern inventories, but the rainy season may increase southern inventory pressure. It is advisable to pay attention to trade logistics changes in South China and regional price - difference rebalancing [12][13]. 3.2.4 Other Commodities - Gold is expected to oscillate and decline, while silver will follow gold's upward movement [16][19]. - Copper prices are supported by inventory reduction [25]. - Aluminum is in a range - bound state, and alumina is expected to decline slightly [28]. - Zinc is under pressure, and lead is in a supply - demand double - weak state with range adjustment [31][34]. - Tin is in a narrow - range oscillation [37]. - Stainless steel has a clear cost bottom but lacks upward - driving force [42]. - Lithium carbonate is affected by non - ore policy risks, and its fundamentals restrict upward movement [48]. - Industrial silicon shows a weak overall trend, while polysilicon's market sentiment is fermenting, and attention should be paid to its upward space [51][52]. - Iron ore's short - term upward drivers have slowed down [55]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are in wide - range oscillations [57][58]. - Coke and coking coal are in bottom - range oscillations [66]. - Steam coal is in a weak - oscillation state due to increased coal - mine inventory [69]. - Logs are in a weak - oscillation state [72].