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碳酸锂：非矿政策风险扰动，基本面偏弱制约上方空间
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-05-23 01:51

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are weak, which restricts the upside space, and there are non - mine policy risk disturbances [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: For the 2507 contract, the closing price was 62,140, with a change of 1,040 compared to T - 1; the trading volume was 427,180, and the open interest was 312,662. For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 63,320, the trading volume was 62,015, and the open interest was 95,742. The warehouse receipt volume was 35,863 [1] - Basis Data: The basis of spot - 2507 was 910, spot - 2509 was - 270, 2507 - 2509 was - 1,180, electric carbon - industrial carbon was 1,600, and spot - CIF was 2,536 [1] - Raw Material and Lithium Salt Data: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 690, lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,280. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 63,050, battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF) was 8,400, industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 61,450, etc. [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 63,380 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 63,050 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 61,450 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged from the previous working day [2] - Lithium exporters in Zimbabwe, including Chengxin Lithium Group, requested a two - and - a - half - year postponement of the 5% export tax until 2027 when lithium concentrate refining plants are expected to be operational. Zimbabwe supplied about 14% of China's lithium imports in 2024 [3] - The total industry inventory of lithium carbonate this week was 131,779 tons, a slight decrease of 141 tons from last week [3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate was - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [3]