有色金属日报-20250523

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The copper market shows a mixed situation with positive macro - factors but weakening fundamentals, and the Shanghai copper may maintain a volatile pattern in the near term [1] - The aluminum price is expected to be weak in the second quarter due to factors such as the potential decline in downstream开工率 and economic data [2] - Nickel is expected to run with a weak and volatile trend in the medium - to - long - term due to the supply surplus, although the cost is firm [3] - The price of tin is expected to have increased volatility, and attention should be paid to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [5] Summary by Metal Types Copper - As of May 22, the Shanghai copper main 06 contract fell 0.22% to 77,920 yuan/ton. The macro - environment is positive, but the fundamentals are weakening. The spot copper price in the domestic market fell, and the market trading was light [1][6] - The SHFE copper futures warehouse receipts decreased by 9,464 tons to 31,754 tons, and the LME copper inventory decreased by 2,300 tons to 166,525 tons [15] Aluminum - As of May 22, the Shanghai aluminum main 07 contract rose 0.20% to 20,210 yuan/ton. The price of alumina increased, and the downstream开工率 may decline. The second - quarter aluminum price is expected to be weak [2] - The spot aluminum market trading was light, with a situation of "having price but no market". The SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1,099 tons to 58,422 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 386,900 tons [2][7][15] Nickel - As of May 22, the Shanghai nickel main 06 contract rose 0.03% to 123,400 yuan/ton. The cost is firm, but there is a medium - to - long - term supply surplus, and it is expected to run weakly and volatilely [3] - The spot nickel market saw merchants maintaining a wait - and - see attitude, and the downstream acceptance was low. The SHFE nickel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 452 tons to 22,562 tons, and the LME nickel inventory decreased by 876 tons to 200,910 tons [3][12][15] Tin - As of May 22, the Shanghai tin main 06 contract fell 0.87% to 264,780 yuan/ton. The price is expected to have increased volatility, and attention should be paid to supply and demand [5] - The spot tin market had active inquiry intentions, and the downstream made rigid - demand replenishment at low prices. The SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts decreased by 14 tons to 8,056 tons, and the LME tin inventory decreased by 5 tons to 2,665 tons [5][13][15] Other Metals (Zinc, Lead, Alumina) - Zinc: The domestic spot zinc price fell, and the consumption was poor. The SHFE zinc futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 1,400 tons, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,650 tons to 156,225 tons [9][15] - Lead: The domestic spot lead price fell, and the downstream consumption was low. The SHFE lead futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1,769 tons to 39,327 tons, and the LME lead inventory increased by 13,700 tons to 295,825 tons [10][11][15] - Alumina: The price in different regions increased, and the market trading was warm [8]