Group 1: Soybean Oil - Current spot price of Zhangjiagang Yijiang Grade 1 soybean oil is 8,260 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - South American new - crop soybeans are likely to achieve a bumper harvest, and the USDA May report shows that the estimated soybean yield per acre in the 2025/26 season is 52.5 bushels, up from 50.7 bushels in the 2024/25 season [1] - The medium - term destocking cycle of soybean oil may be coming to an end, and the inventory may rebound from a low level after the arrival of South American imported soybeans and customs clearance [1] - The short - term trend of the soybean oil 2509 contract may be range - bound [1] Group 2: Soybean Meal - Spot prices of 43% soybean meal in different regions: Zhangjiagang 2,860 yuan/ton (+30), Tianjin 2,950 yuan/ton (+20), Rizhao 2,880 yuan/ton (+20), Dongguan 2,900 yuan/ton (+10) [2] - Although a phase - one agreement has been reached in China - US trade, long - term contradictions still exist; US soybeans have risen due to weather speculation caused by rainfall in the production areas [2] - The supply of soybeans is gradually recovering, the oil mill operating rate is increasing, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to shift from tight to loose. Downstream enterprises will adopt a just - in - time procurement strategy [2] - The short - term trend of soybean meal may be oscillating strongly [2] Group 3: Corn - The mainstream purchase prices of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia are 2,195 yuan/ton, and in North China and the Huang - Huai region are 2,414 yuan/ton. The purchase prices in Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port are 2,260 - 2,270 yuan/ton [3] - The Sino - US joint statement has led to expectations of looser corn imports in the medium and long term, and the May USDA report has increased the US production and ending stocks, which is bearish for US corn futures prices [3] - In China, the supply pressure has been relieved, but downstream demand is weak, and the futures price has declined due to market sentiment [3] - The short - term futures price will oscillate weakly, and mid - term investors should focus on band - trading long opportunities [3] Group 4: Electrolytic Copper - The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78,290 - 78,630 yuan, up 230 yuan, with a premium of 200 - 350 yuan. The imported copper ore index is - 43.05, up 0.06 [4] - The gradual easing of global tariffs and domestic policy support are beneficial to the market, but raw material issues and inventory declines have complicated the market [4] - Copper prices have not completely shaken off the influence of the moving average, and the upper limit of the moving average system is set as the overall defense line [4] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate - The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 63,000 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 60,850 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 2,150 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - Cost support has weakened, supply is high, demand has improved but not enough to drive prices up, and inventory has increased. The spot and futures prices have declined, and attention should be paid to the 60,000 yuan/ton support level [6] - The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may oscillate weakly, and investors can go short on rallies [7] Group 6: Steel Rebar - The price of Shanghai steel rebar is 3,190 yuan, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.69%, the social inventory is 416.46 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 187.76 million tons [8] - The fundamentals of steel have improved, the contango structure has weakened, and the current valuation is moderately low. Policy support has increased the apparent demand, and the cost is dynamically adjusted. The inventory is at a low level [8] - The short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations, and the fundamentals are also improving. The market shows a pattern of strong supply and demand. Investors should focus on the switching rhythm between macro - policy expectations and fundamental data and conduct range trading [8] - The negative feedback in the black market has been gradually reflected in the market, and investors can take a long position at low levels [8] Group 7: Coking Coal and Coke - The price of main coking coal (Meng 5) is 1,155 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Rizhao Port is 1,290 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 301.56 million tons, and the port inventory of coke is 223.10 million tons [9] - The supply is relatively loose, the demand is weak, the inventory is slightly increasing, and the average profit per ton of coke is approaching the break - even point [9] - Due to the loose supply, coking coal and coke will oscillate weakly at low levels [9] Group 8: Iron Ore - The Platts iron ore index is 100.15, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 765 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 764 yuan [10] - The global iron ore shipment volume has slightly decreased, the port inventory has decreased, the domestic demand has increased but procurement is still cautious, and overseas demand is differentiated. The US tariff policy has restricted the upward space of iron ore prices [10] - The short - term trend of the iron ore 2509 contract will be range - bound, and investors are advised to be cautious [10] Group 9: Crude Oil - The resurgence of twists and turns in the US - Iran negotiations has reduced the expectation of supply increase, but the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating has led to the overall oscillation of crude oil prices. In the medium and long term, the price center will move down [11] - OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June, and the market expects an oversupply [11] - The WTI main contract will oscillate between 55 - 65 US dollars per barrel [11] Group 10: Rubber - With the improvement of the Sino - US trade situation, the fundamentals have improved slightly, but the rebound height is restricted. The supply is loose, and the market is affected by macro - factors [12][13] - The overall supply of rubber exceeds demand, and the market will oscillate [13] Group 11: PVC - The mainstream price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4,830 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged; the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the price difference between ethylene - based and calcium - carbide - based PVC is 170 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [14] - The PVC production enterprise operating rate has decreased, the downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the social inventory has decreased. The futures price has rebounded, but the fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the upward space is limited [14] - The fundamentals are still weak, and the futures price will oscillate at low levels [15] Group 12: Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1422.19 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The mainstream prices in East China, North China, and Central China are also unchanged [16] - The weekly operating rate of soda ash has decreased, the production has decreased, the inventory has decreased, and the demand is average. The market is expected to continue wide - range oscillation [16] - The 09 contract oscillated narrowly yesterday, and the market is expected to continue wide - range oscillation in the short term [16]
安粮期货投资早参-20250523
An Liang Qi Huo·2025-05-23 02:32