煤焦：刚需见顶，盘面延续弱势

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro disturbances have weakened and market sentiment has warmed up, but the overall supply - demand situation of coal and coke remains weak. With the continuous increase in coking coal supply and the tendency of hot metal production to peak and decline, the prices are temporarily treated as bearish on rebounds [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Trend - Recently, coal and coke futures prices have continuously hit new lows. The spot market saw the first round of coke price cuts by steel mills last week, and there are expectations of further cuts. The market is in a weak - running trend, indicating a poor fundamental situation for coal and coke [3]. Supply Side - Upstream coking coal inventories at coal mines and coal washing plants are still high, with continuous inventory accumulation in recent weeks. This week, production decreased due to the maintenance of major mines in Changzhi, Shanxi and Anhui, and safety measures were tightened in Liulin, leading to production cuts in the main production areas of Shanxi. However, after the maintenance of major mines ends, raw coal production is expected to recover. Mongolian coal resumed high - level customs clearance after the May Day holiday, and port inventories have increased again. Overall, coking coal supply remains sufficient [3]. Demand Side - The overall demand is currently at a high level but there are expectations of production cuts in June. Currently, the overall profitability rate of steel mills is nearly 60%, and their production enthusiasm is relatively high. This week, the daily average hot metal output slightly decreased to 2.436 million tons. Despite the high hot metal output driving raw material demand, coal and coke prices are still in a downward trend, indicating a prominent problem of oversupply [3].