渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.05.23）-20250523

Group 1: Corporate Pension System in China - The development of China's corporate pension system has gone through three stages over more than 20 years, with a scale reaching 3.6 trillion yuan by 2024, nearly half of the basic pension insurance in 2023. However, the participation rate is only 3.4%, which is low compared to OECD countries [3][4] - The U.S. corporate pension system has a long history, with a participation rate of 23.4% by 1970 and a scale of 22.4 trillion USD by 2023, accounting for 53.2% of the pension system. The asset allocation of private DB plans is approximately 6:3:1 for equities, fixed income, and other assets, while DC plans favor equities at a ratio of 8:1:1 [4] - Japan's corporate pension system, established in the 1960s, has a total scale of 92.8 trillion yen by March 2024, accounting for 26.2% of the pension system. The asset allocation is balanced for DB plans and more concentrated in high-yield assets for DC plans [5] - Learning from the U.S. and Japan, China's corporate pension system may optimize participation mechanisms, contribution confirmation, tax models, investment choices, and account management, which could lead to increased long-term capital inflow into the equity market [5] Group 2: A-Share Market Investment Strategy - In the past five trading days (May 16-22), major indices showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.02% and the ChiNext Index up 0.11%. The average daily trading volume decreased to 1.12 trillion yuan, down 127.85 billion yuan from the previous five days [6][7] - Economic growth remained stable in April, with fixed asset investment growing by 4.0% year-on-year, while retail sales increased by 5.1%. This stability is attributed to the effectiveness of previous macro policies [7] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange announced plans to improve merger and acquisition mechanisms to support the development of new productive forces, indicating a potential increase in M&A activities in the near future [7] - The market's future opportunities will depend on incremental changes, with a focus on high-quality development and structural layout. A "barbell" investment strategy is recommended, focusing on both high-dividend banking stocks and thematic investments in new consumption sectors [8] Group 3: Margin Trading and Securities Lending - In the week of May 14-20, major A-share indices mostly declined, with the Shanghai 50 index rising by 0.32% and the Sci-Tech 50 index falling by 1.19%. The total margin trading balance reached 1.80731 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.461 billion yuan from the previous week [9][10] - The sectors with the highest net buying in margin trading included automotive, non-bank financials, and machinery, while the computer, electronics, and telecommunications sectors saw lower net buying [10] - The top five stocks for net buying in margin trading were CITIC Securities, Dongfang Wealth, China Merchants Bank, Tonghua Golden Horse, and GF Securities [11]