铅锌日评：原料不足引发炼厂减产，铅价下方支撑较强，沪锌区间整理-20250523

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The raw material shortage has led to production cuts at lead smelters, providing strong support for the downside of lead prices. The lead price is expected to trade in a wide range in the short term, with subsequent focus on macro uncertainties [1]. - The fundamentals of Shanghai zinc are weak, and it is expected to trade in a wide range in the short term. In the medium to long term, the TC has room to rise, and the center of the zinc price may shift downwards. A strategy of shorting on rebounds is recommended, with subsequent focus on macro - sentiment disturbances [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Lead Market - Price and Market Indicators: On May 23, 2025, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,625 yuan/ton, down 0.60% from the previous day. The closing price of the futures main contract was 16,685 yuan/ton, down 1.27%. The trading volume of the futures active contract increased by 106.00% to 42,980 lots, and the open interest increased by 170.23% to 45,301 lots. The LME inventory was 295,825 tons, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 39,327 tons, down 4.30% [1]. - Fundamentals: The operation of primary lead smelters was stable with a slight increase. For secondary lead, the price of waste lead - acid batteries rose continuously, and recyclers had limited supplies. Some smelters cut or stopped production due to cost inversion, and the operating rate declined significantly. The demand was in the off - season, with weak downstream procurement [1]. - Inventory: As of May 22, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots in five locations was 5.03 million tons, a decrease of 0.57 million tons from May 15 and 0.88 million tons from May 19 [1]. 3.2 Zinc Market - Price and Market Indicators: On May 23, 2025, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,580 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from the previous day. The closing price of the futures main contract was 22,455 yuan/ton, down 0.55%. The trading volume of the futures active contract decreased by 16.49% to 82,262 lots, and the open interest decreased by 11.19% to 59,658 lots. The LME inventory was 156,225 tons, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 1,400 tons [1]. - Fundamentals: Zinc smelters had sufficient raw material stocks, and the zinc concentrate processing fee continued to rise. The production of smelters increased, but the terminal demand had not improved, and downstream enterprises were bearish on the future zinc price and had weak procurement enthusiasm. Different downstream sectors had different performances [1]. - Inventory: As of May 22, the total inventory of SMM zinc ingots in seven locations was 8.04 million tons, a decrease of 0.59 million tons from May 15 and 0.34 million tons from May 19 [1]. 3.3 Other Information - The Port Pirie multi - metal smelter in Australia, owned by Nyrstar, has the capacity to produce up to 5,000 tons of antimony metal or antimony trioxide per year but needs additional processing steps and government funding. The Australian smelting industry is facing challenges from high domestic electricity costs and over - capacity in China [1]. - Canadian mining company Foran Mining plans to raise 350 million Canadian dollars through non - brokered private placement for the construction and exploration of the McIlvenna Bay copper - zinc project. The project is expected to start commercial production in mid - 2026 [1].