双焦早盘提示-20250523

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The report views the coking coal and coke market as bearish, but does not recommend opening short positions at the current level. Existing short positions can be held for observation [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The coking coal and coke futures prices hit new lows. With the supply - demand of coking coal remaining loose, the price of coking coal for blast furnaces continues to weaken, and the cost support declines. The market is pessimistic about future demand, and the coking coal and coke futures are expected to fluctuate weakly [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - The Jm2509 contract closed at 827.5, down 1.72% from the previous trading day's close; the J2509 contract closed at 1406.5, down 0.78%. In the night session, the Jm2509 contract closed at 825.0, down 0.3% from the day - session close, and the J2509 contract closed at 1413.5, up 0.5% [1] 3.2 Important Information - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 8.7244 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 40,900 tons or 0.5%. The total inventory of five major steel products was 13.9854 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 321,200 tons or 2.2%. The weekly consumption was 9.0456 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.0%, with building material consumption up 1.6% and plate consumption down 2.6% [1] - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples was 86.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.0%. The daily output of raw coal was 1.936 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 70,000 tons, and the raw coal inventory was 6.248 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 180,000 tons. The daily output of clean coal was 0.786 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31,000 tons, and the clean coal inventory was 4.475 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 371,000 tons [1] 3.3 Market Logic - The coking coal and coke futures hit new lows. With the supply - demand of coking coal remaining loose, the price of coking coal for blast furnaces continues to decline, and the cost support weakens, with further price cuts expected. On the demand side, the apparent demand for five major steel products declined this week, with supply increasing and demand decreasing. The market is pessimistic about future demand, and there is no driving force for a rebound in the coking coal and coke futures, so they are expected to fluctuate weakly [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - The coking coal and coke market is still bearish, but opening short positions at the current level is not recommended. Existing short positions can be held for observation [1]