玉米生猪鸡蛋早盘提示-20250523

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Low long-term investment [1] - Pig: Interval investment [3] - Egg: High short-term investment [3] 2. Core Views - Corn: In the short term, the spot price is under pressure due to new wheat harvest and increased supply, but in the medium term, the supply pattern may tighten, and the price may stop falling and rebound. In the long term, policy and wheat substitution will limit the upside space [1]. - Pig: In the short term, the spot price is weak due to increased出栏体重. In the medium term, the supply pressure will continue to be realized. In the long term, the production capacity will continue to be realized if there is no epidemic [3]. - Egg: In the short term, the spot price is weak due to increased supply and inventory. In the medium term, the supply pressure will increase, and the futures should be shorted [3]. 3. Summaries by Sections Corn - Market Review: Overnight CBOT corn futures rose 0.38%, and the 2507 contract of domestic corn futures rose 0.04% to 2326 yuan/ton [1]. - Important Information: Port prices rose slightly, deep - processing enterprise prices were weak in the Northeast and mixed in North China. Wheat - corn price difference increased substitution. Futures warehouse receipts decreased by 100 to 211,935. Two types of corn transactions by CGS had different results [1]. - Market Logic: Short - term spot is weak, medium - term supply may tighten, long - term price upside is limited by policies and substitution [1]. - Trading Strategy: Long - term interval operation; medium - term low long; short - term pay attention to pressure breakthrough [1]. Pig - Market Review: Yesterday, the pig futures fluctuated, and the LH2507 contract fell 0.45% to 13,240 yuan/ton [3]. - Important Information: The national average pig price fell, the number of fertile sows was above normal, the price difference between fat and lean pigs was stable, the average出栏体重 increased, and the futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged [3]. - Market Logic: Short - term price is weak due to weight increase, medium - term supply pressure persists, long - term production capacity will be realized [3]. - Trading Strategy: Medium - term interval operation; short - term weak and test support [3]. Egg - Market Review: Yesterday, the egg futures were weak, the JD2507 contract rose 0.1% to 2,957 yuan/500kg, and the JD2508 contract fell 0.75% to 3,559 yuan/500kg [3]. - Important Information: Spot prices fell, production and circulation inventories changed slightly, the price of old hens fell, and the number of laying hens increased [3]. - Market Logic: Short - term price is weak due to supply increase, medium - term supply pressure will increase [3]. - Trading Strategy: Short the 2507 contract if the pressure is effective, short the 2508 contract if it breaks 3600, and consider long in the far - month contract after June [3][4]