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铁合金早盘提示-20250523
Ge Lin Qi Huo·2025-05-23 03:02

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black metal sector (silicon - iron and manganese - silicon) is "oscillating with a slight upward bias" [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - The prices of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron showed different trends yesterday, with the manganese - silicon main contract SM2509 rising 3.56% and the silicon - iron main contract SF2507 rising 0.04% compared to the opening price. The supply, inventory, and consumption of five major steel products have changed, and the national power generation installed capacity has increased year - on - year. South Africa has new mineral policies. The prices of silicon - manganese alloy and silicon - iron for Hebei Iron and Steel's May procurement have different changes. Before the news is confirmed, the manganese - silicon price may oscillate, and the fundamentals are still weak. It is recommended to wait and see [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The manganese - silicon main contract SM2509 closed at 5998 yesterday, a 3.56% increase from the opening price. The silicon - iron main contract SF2507 closed at 5622, a 0.04% increase from the opening price [1] Important News - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 872.44 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.09 million tons or 0.5%. The total inventory was 1398.54 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 32.12 million tons or 2.2%. The weekly consumption was 904.56 million tons, a 1.0% decrease from the previous week [1] - As of the end of April, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.49 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 15.9%. Among them, the solar power installed capacity was 0.99 billion kilowatts, a 47.7% increase, and the wind power installed capacity was 0.54 billion kilowatts, an 18.2% increase [1] - On May 20, South Africa's Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy announced that the South African Cabinet officially approved the "Critical Minerals and Metals Strategy" and decided to solicit public opinions on the "Mineral Resources Development Bill (MRDB) 2025" [1] Market Logic - Regarding manganese - silicon, the news of South Africa's restriction on manganese ore exports spread yesterday. As South Africa's manganese ore imports account for more than half of China's total imports, the manganese - silicon price rose significantly. Hebei Iron and Steel has set the procurement price of silicon - manganese alloy in May at 5850 yuan/ton (acceptance), 150 yuan/ton higher than the inquiry price and 100 yuan/ton lower than the April price. The procurement quantity is 11,600 tons, an increase of 200 tons from the previous month. For silicon - iron, Hebei Iron and Steel's procurement price of 75B silicon - iron in May is 5800 yuan/ton, 150 yuan/ton lower than in April, and the quantity is 2135 tons, an increase of 435 tons from April. After the previous shutdown and maintenance, the supply - demand of both silicon products is gradually stabilizing, and the spot market has a strong willingness to support prices [1] Trading Strategy - The short - term upper pressure for manganese - silicon is 6100. Silicon - iron has relatively strong bottom support due to the influence of manganese - silicon. The fundamentals are still considered weak. Currently, the tradable space in terms of news is relatively limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]