燃料油日报：油价再度回撤，关注欧佩克增产节奏-20250523

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The previous day, crude oil prices retreated again, with the expectation of OPEC's continued production increase in July pressuring the market. Considering the unclear geopolitical situations in Russia-Ukraine and the Middle East, prices may fluctuate in the short term [1]. - In the short term, the fundamental contradictions in the fuel oil market are limited. After the Mediterranean ECA came into effect in May, although the demand for low-sulfur fuel oil was partially substituted, refineries also adjusted their products to reduce supply. The European market performed stronger than expected, and the tightening of arbitrage cargo volumes also supported the Asian market. However, in the medium term, low-sulfur fuel oil still faces the contradictions of demand share substitution and excess capacity. For high-sulfur fuel oil, as summer approaches, the demand from power plants in the Middle East and other regions enters a seasonal growth stage. Countries such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt are gradually increasing their fuel oil purchases. But as OPEC accelerates production increases, Middle Eastern countries like Saudi Arabia may increase their consumption of crude oil at the power generation end, and the substitution demand for fuel oil may decline year-on-year [1]. 3. Strategy Summary - High-sulfur fuel oil: Expected to fluctuate [2]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Expected to fluctuate [2]. - Cross-variety: No specific strategy [2]. - Cross-period: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the spread of FU2507 - 2509 at low prices, and the previous positive spread positions can take profits at high prices [2]. - Spot-futures: No specific strategy [2]. - Options: No specific strategy [2]. 4. Chart Information - The report includes various charts related to fuel oil, such as the spot prices, swap near-month contracts, and month spreads of Singapore high-sulfur 380 fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil, as well as the closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of fuel oil FU and low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures contracts [3].