Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. For treasury bonds, it's expected that there will be no trend - like market, so caution is advised [6][7]. - Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still promising. Considering going long on stock index futures [10][11]. - The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue. It's advisable to consider going long on gold futures [13][14]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil, investors can focus on shorting opportunities during rebounds. For iron ore, focus on buying opportunities at low levels. For coking coal and coke, focus on shorting opportunities during rebounds [15][17][19]. - For iron alloys, consider call option opportunities for ferromanganese silicon at low levels and short - covering opportunities for ferrosilicon at the bottom [21][22]. - For crude oil and fuel oil, consider short - side operations [24][25][27]. - Synthetic rubber is expected to oscillate, natural rubber to oscillate weakly, PVC to continue oscillating, urea to fluctuate narrowly, PX to be treated with caution, PTA to be operated within a range, ethylene glycol to oscillate and be treated with caution regarding the upside, short - fiber to oscillate following the cost, bottle - chip to follow the cost, soda ash to oscillate steadily, glass to have a short - term sentiment repair, caustic soda to focus on device operation and liquid chlorine price fluctuations, pulp to have a short - term rebound and then pay attention to supply and demand policies, and lithium carbonate to control risks and wait for upstream large - scale production cuts [28][30][32][35][37][39][40][42][43][44][46][47][49][51]. - For copper, consider short - term shorting. For tin, expect a bearish oscillation. For nickel, pay attention to opportunities after the repair of macro - sentiment. For industrial silicon and polysilicon, maintain a bearish view [53][56][57][59]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, be on the sidelines for soybean meal and consider call option opportunities for soybean oil at the bottom. For palm oil, consider expanding the spread between rapeseed - palm oil and soybean - palm oil. For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider going long on rapeseed meal after a pull - back. For cotton, wait to go long after a pull - back. For sugar, operate within a range. For apples, focus on going long opportunities after a pull - back. For live pigs, temporarily stay on the sidelines. For eggs, consider shorting after a rebound. For corn and starch, stay on the sidelines. For logs, the market has no obvious driving force [61][64][66][70][75][79][81][83][86][88]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed flat. The central bank conducted 154.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 90 billion yuan. Nearly 100 institutions have issued over 250 billion yuan of science and technology innovation bonds [5]. - The macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, and the monetary policy is expected to be loose. The treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level. It's advisable to be cautious [6]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is promising. Considering going long on stock index futures [8][10][11]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The US and euro - zone PMI data were released. The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue. Consider going long on gold futures [12][13][14]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated weakly. The real - estate downturn suppresses prices, but the peak - season demand may provide short - term support. The valuation is low, and the downward space may be limited. Consider shorting during rebounds [15]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated. The high demand and reduced supply support the price. The valuation is relatively high. Consider buying at low levels [17]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the demand for coke is weak. Consider shorting during rebounds [19]. Iron Alloys - On the previous trading day, ferromanganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures rose. The supply of manganese ore may be disturbed, and the demand for iron alloys is weak. Consider call option opportunities for ferromanganese silicon at low levels and short - covering opportunities for ferrosilicon at the bottom [21][22]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil dropped significantly due to the possible OPEC+ production increase. The supply - demand imbalance and tariff - induced consumption decline may negatively affect oil prices. Consider short - side operations [23][24][25]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil dropped following crude oil. The summer power - generation demand may boost the price, but the decline in crude oil prices will drive it down. Consider short - side operations [26][27]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures fell. The supply pressure persists, but the demand and cost factors may lead to short - term strength with limited upside. It's expected to oscillate [28][29]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures fell. The supply may increase, and the demand may improve. It's expected to oscillate weakly [30][31]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand for exports is good. It's expected to continue oscillating [32][34]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures fell. The market is affected by export news and policy intervention. It's expected to fluctuate narrowly [35][36]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures fell. The supply - demand and cost factors are in a game. It's advisable to be cautious [37]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures fell. The supply - demand structure has improved, but the cost support is insufficient. Consider range - bound operations [38][39]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The supply has decreased, the inventory is decreasing, and the demand has improved, but the cost lacks drive. It's expected to oscillate and be treated with caution regarding the upside [40]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures fell. The downstream demand has slightly improved, but the cost support is insufficient. It's expected to oscillate following the cost [41][42]. Bottle - Chip - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures fell. The raw material price is oscillating, and the supply - demand fundamentals have improved. It's expected to follow the cost [43]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures rose. The short - term supply has decreased, but the long - term supply - demand imbalance persists. It's expected to oscillate steadily [44][45]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures rose. The actual supply - demand has no obvious driving force. The short - term market sentiment may be repaired [46]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures fell slightly. The production has decreased, the inventory is at a neutral level, and the demand is limited. Pay attention to device operation and liquid chlorine price fluctuations [47][48]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures fell. The inventory is accumulating, the downstream demand is weak, and the supply is abundant. It may have a short - term rebound, and then pay attention to supply and demand policies [49][50]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The supply is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the inventory is accumulating. Control risks and wait for upstream large - scale production cuts [51][52]. Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated slightly. The Sino - US tariff affects the real economy, and copper may face a correction. Consider short - term shorting [53][54]. Tin - On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin fell. The supply may increase, and the demand may improve. It's expected to have a bearish oscillation [55][56]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel rose. The cost support is strong, but the demand is weak. Pay attention to opportunities after the repair of macro - sentiment [57]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - On the previous trading day, industrial silicon futures fell slightly, and polysilicon futures rose. The demand is weak, and the supply reduction is limited. Maintain a bearish view [58][59]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, soybean meal futures rose, and soybean oil futures fell. The supply of soybeans is expected to be abundant. Be on the sidelines for soybean meal and consider call option opportunities for soybean oil at the bottom [60][61]. Palm Oil - On the previous trading day, palm oil futures fell. The inventory is accumulating, and the demand is weak. Consider expanding the spread between rapeseed - palm oil and soybean - palm oil [62][64]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - On the previous trading day, rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil futures showed different performances. The import situation has changed, and the inventory is at different levels. Consider going long on rapeseed meal after a pull - back [65][66]. Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures oscillated. The Sino - US tariff suspension may be beneficial, and the weather affects the growth. Wait to go long after a pull - back [67][70]. Sugar - On the previous trading day, domestic sugar futures oscillated weakly. The Brazilian production is expected to increase, and the domestic inventory is low. Operate within a range [71][74][75]. Apples - On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures fell slightly. The production is uncertain, and the inventory is decreasing. Focus on going long opportunities after a pull - back [76][78][79]. Live Pigs - On the previous trading day, live pig futures fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. Temporarily stay on the sidelines [80][81]. Eggs - On the previous trading day, egg futures fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand may be supported during the festival. Consider shorting after a rebound [82][83]. Corn and Starch - On the previous trading day, corn futures rose, and corn starch futures fell slightly. The supply pressure exists, and the demand is weak. Temporarily stay on the sidelines [84][86]. Logs - On the previous trading day, log futures fell slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The market has no obvious driving force [87][88].
西南期货早间评论-20250523
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2025-05-23 03:01