2025年4月经济数据点评：外部冲击下经济平稳运行

Economic Performance - In April, the industrial added value grew by 6.1% year-on-year, a decrease from March's peak[10] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 14,702.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.0%[10] - Retail sales of consumer goods totaled 37,174 billion yuan in April, growing by 5.1% year-on-year, but down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month[10] Investment Trends - Infrastructure investment remains stable, supported by increased fiscal spending and special bonds, with a focus on "two heavy" projects[3] - Real estate investment saw a decline of 10.3% year-on-year in the first four months, but the decrease is limited compared to earlier improvements[21] - Manufacturing investment growth slightly decreased by 0.3 percentage points, yet remains robust[20] Consumption Insights - Urban retail sales grew by 5.2% year-on-year, while rural retail sales increased by 4.7%, indicating a slight decline in both sectors[23] - Categories such as building materials and jewelry saw significant rebounds, while automotive and communication equipment sales declined[24] Economic Outlook - External pressures are easing, and economic stability is expected to improve due to proactive macroeconomic policies aimed at stabilizing employment and market expectations[4] - The combination of investment and consumption stimulus policies is anticipated to enhance domestic demand, contributing to a positive economic trajectory[4] Risk Factors - Potential risks include worsening geopolitical events, changes in international financial conditions, and unexpected shifts in U.S.-China policies[5]