中辉有色观点-20250523

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Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to fluctuate and rise in the short - term and has high strategic allocation value in the long - term due to international order changes [1]. - Silver will continue to have range - bound oscillations, influenced by gold and basic metals [1]. - Copper is under pressure in the short - term but is still favored in the long - term [1]. - Zinc may have a short - term rebound but is expected to have a supply - increase and demand - weak situation in the long - term [1]. - Lead is under pressure due to supply and demand factors [1]. - Tin is under pressure with inventory accumulation and supply recovery [1]. - Aluminum's price rebound is under pressure due to factors in the upstream and downstream [1]. - Nickel's price rebound is under pressure because of cost and inventory factors [1]. - Industrial silicon has a bearish outlook due to supply - demand imbalance [1]. - For lithium carbonate, it is recommended to short on rebounds as supply remains high and demand is in the off - season [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver 行情回顾 - Trump's tax reform was initially passed, and conflicts in Gaza and between Russia and Ukraine flared up again, which may support the price of gold [2]. 基本逻辑 - Trump's tax reform bill narrowly passed the House of Representatives, which will increase the US debt by $4 trillion. CBO estimates that the US fiscal deficit will increase by about $1.77 trillion from 2025 - 2029. China's central bank has been buying a large amount of gold, with last month's import reaching 127.5 metric tons, a 73% month - on - month increase. The Middle East is in turmoil. In the long - term, the global trend of reducing dependence on the US dollar and the dual - easing of fiscal and monetary policies will support gold to attract incremental funds [3]. 策略推荐 - In the short - term, long positions can be arranged in the gold market, and for long - term investment, control the position. Silver may continue to have range - bound oscillations in the range of [8130, 8350] [4]. Copper 行情回顾 - The center of gravity of Shanghai copper has moved down, testing the support of the lower moving average [5]. 产业逻辑 - Overseas copper mine supply is tight, and the copper concentrate processing fee is - $43.05 per ton. With the increase in smelting maintenance, the supply of electrolytic copper in May may decline to 1.1257 million tons. Trump's copper import tariff policy is causing the depletion of copper inventories outside the US. The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory is 139,900 tons, and the high copper price is suppressing demand. However, green copper demand in power, automotive, and home appliances is strong, offsetting the weakness in traditional copper demand in real estate and infrastructure [5]. 策略推荐 - Due to the increasing geopolitical risks in the Middle East and China entering the policy window period, copper has returned to its fundamentals. With continuous inventory accumulation in China, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. Hold the remaining long - position bottom positions cautiously and pay attention to the support at the 77,000 level. In the long - term, there is confidence in the rise of copper. The short - term range for Shanghai copper is [77,000, 78,500], and for London copper, it is [9200, 9600] dollars per ton [6]. Zinc 行情回顾 - The rise of London zinc drove Shanghai zinc to have a small rebound [7]. 产业逻辑 - In 2025, the supply of zinc ore is expected to be looser. The domestic processing fee for zinc concentrate is reported at 3500 yuan per ton, and the import processing fee has increased by $5 per ton to $45 per ton. In April, China's zinc ingot production was 555,400 tons, with the daily average output increasing by 900 tons month - on - month and a year - on - year increase of 10.1%. The downstream demand has weakened, and the operating rate of zinc - related enterprises has declined [7]. 策略推荐 - Zinc is a short - position variety in the sector. Although it was the only rising variety in the non - ferrous sector when the market sentiment subsided, in the short - term, the inventory reduction at home and abroad supports the price, but with the arrival of the consumption off - season, the terminal demand is weak and the supply continues to increase. It is recommended to hold the previous short positions. In the long - term, take short - selling opportunities on rebounds. The range for Shanghai zinc is [22,000, 22,600], and for London zinc, it is [2650, 2750] dollars per ton [8]. Aluminum 行情回顾 - The price of aluminum rebounded under pressure, and the price of alumina showed a downward trend [9]. 产业逻辑 - For electrolytic aluminum, the overseas macro - trade environment has eased. In mid - May, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the domestic mainstream consumption areas was 585,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16,000 tons. The inventory of aluminum rods was 131,600 tons, a decrease of 6600 tons from last Thursday. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 61.6%, and new orders decreased. For alumina, the news disturbance from the overseas Guinea bauxite end has eased. The overall bauxite supply is at a high level, and the port inventory increased by more than 400,000 tons in April. Domestic alumina enterprises have concentrated on maintenance and production reduction, and the demand for bauxite has weakened. The inventory of alumina has decreased but is still at a relatively high level [10]. 策略推荐 - It is recommended to wait and see for Shanghai aluminum, pay attention to inventory changes, and the main operating range is [19,800 - 20,500]. Alumina is expected to operate stably [10]. Nickel 行情回顾 - The price of nickel rebounded under pressure, and stainless steel was also under pressure [11]. 产业逻辑 - For nickel, the overseas macro - environment has eased. The shipping volume of nickel ore from the Philippines has increased, and the price of Indonesian nickel ore has decreased, weakening the cost support. In April, China's refined nickel production increased by 6% month - on - month and 47% year - on - year. The latest operating rate of refined nickel enterprises is 67%, and the operating rate of leading enterprises remains high. In May, the domestic pure nickel social inventory is about 44,100 tons, with a slight increase week - on - week and still at a relatively high level. For stainless steel, driven by positive trade news, the inventory pressure in the stainless steel spot market has decreased. The total inventory in Wuxi and Foshan markets has dropped to 980,700 tons, a 0.85% week - on - week decrease. Although the social inventory has decreased due to the recovery of consumption, the overall industry still faces the pressure of oversupply [12]. 策略推荐 - It is recommended to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, pay attention to downstream consumption. The main operating range for nickel is [120,000 - 129,000] [12]. Carbonate Lithium 行情回顾 - The main contract LC2507 opened high and went high, with a reduction in positions and a rebound, rising more than 3% during the session [13]. 产业逻辑 - A lithium salt factory in Jiangxi plans to stop production for 4 months, affecting the monthly output by 1500 tons, which has a small impact on the overall supply scale. The price of raw materials has not stopped falling, and the negative feedback between lithium salt and ore still exists, causing the price center of gravity of lithium carbonate to move down. The upstream resource end has not stopped production, and the Australian Finniss project is conducting restart research with reduced operating costs. Domestic smelters have not had large - scale production cuts. The demand is about to enter the off - season, and the Sino - US negotiation has not brought incremental orders to the energy storage market. Downstream enterprises are rushing to ship goods to reduce inventory, and the total inventory has increased again this week, with the inventory pressure concentrated on smelters, and the oversupply may further expand. The main contract is testing the support at the 60,000 integer level [14]. 策略推荐 - Short on rebounds in the range of [61,500 - 63,500] [14].