光大期货能化商品日报-20250523
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-05-23 03:32
- Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current oil prices will continue to fluctuate due to factors such as OPEC+ production increase discussions, non - compliance of some member countries, and the deadlock in US - Iran nuclear negotiations [1]. - The absolute price volatility of fuel oil (FU and LU) is expected to increase in the short term, and the strategy of narrowing the LU - FU spread can be continued [3]. - The absolute price volatility of asphalt (BU) is expected to increase in the short term. BU may be a relatively weak variety among oil products, and a strategy of shorting the cracking spread can be considered [3][5]. - PTA and ethylene glycol should be treated with a short - term oscillatory mindset [5]. - The price of natural rubber will oscillate in the short term [5][7]. - The price fluctuation of methanol may increase, and attention should be paid to MTO device复产 plans and Iranian device changes [7]. - Polyolefins are expected to maintain an oscillatory trend [7][9]. - The price of PVC is expected to oscillate weakly [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - Crude Oil: On Thursday, international oil prices fell for the third consecutive day. OPEC+ is discussing a possible large - scale production increase in July. Saudi Arabia warned non - compliant members. The US - Iran nuclear negotiation is at a deadlock, and the market is in a wait - and - see mood. The oil price will oscillate [1]. - Fuel Oil: On Thursday, the main contracts of fuel oil (FU2507) and low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2507) fell. Singapore and Fujeirah fuel oil inventories increased. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil may be tight before June, and high - sulfur fuel oil inventory is being digested. The absolute price volatility of FU and LU is expected to increase, and the LU - FU spread has shown an inflection point [3]. - Asphalt: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract (BU2507) rose. This week, the shipment volume of domestic asphalt enterprises increased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises increased. Supply may rise in June, but some refineries may reduce production next week. Demand is supported in the north but weak in the south. The absolute price volatility of BU is expected to increase, and it may be a relatively weak variety [3][5]. - Polyester: TA509, EG2509, and PX futures contracts fell. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were light. An EO - EG联产 device stopped working, and two synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol devices in Henan will be shut down for maintenance. PX supply supports PXN, and PTA devices are restarting. Polyester operating load is high, and ethylene glycol port inventory is expected to decrease. Both PTA and ethylene glycol should be treated with an oscillatory mindset [5]. - Rubber: On Thursday, the main rubber contracts (RU2509, NR, BR) showed different trends. The operating load of domestic tire enterprises decreased. The low production at the beginning of rubber tapping and rainfall in overseas production areas support raw material prices. Rubber imports increased, and Qingdao inventory decreased slightly. The price of natural rubber will oscillate [5][7]. - Methanol: Supply has decreased due to domestic device maintenance but is still at a high level in the past five years. Iranian device load has dropped, and the expected arrival volume in the far - month is expected to decrease, but the short - term arrival volume is recovering. MTO device operation has not changed much, and port and inland inventories are low. The price fluctuation of methanol may increase [7]. - Polyolefins: The prices of polypropylene (PP) and polyethylene (PE) showed different trends. There are many upstream maintenance activities, and supply pressure is not large. Demand has increased due to tariff reduction, and inventory has decreased. However, both inventory and supply are at high levels, and polyolefins are expected to maintain an oscillatory trend [7][9]. - Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC): On Thursday, the PVC market prices in East, North, and South China showed different trends. Maintenance devices will resume production, and new maintenance is limited, so production is expected to increase. Domestic real - estate construction is stable, but demand will weaken in the off - season. The price of PVC is expected to oscillate weakly [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on May 23, 2025, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, price change rate, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [10]. 3.3 Market News - OPEC+ is discussing a possible large - scale production increase in the June 1 meeting, and a daily production increase of 411,000 barrels in July is one of the options under discussion [13]. - Turkey's imports of Urals crude oil will increase in May as its top refinery Tupras has resumed purchasing Russian crude oil, which is traded below the Western price cap of $60 per barrel [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - 4.1 Main Contract Prices: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [15][16][17] - 4.2 Main Contract Basis: The report shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [30][32][39] - 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [45][47][50] - 4.4 Inter - variety Spreads: The report presents the spread and ratio charts of different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, BU/SC ratio, etc. [60][62][65] - 4.5 Production Profits: The report shows the production profit charts of various energy - chemical products, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [68][72] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - Zhong Meiyan: Assistant Director of the Research Institute and Director of Energy - Chemical Research, with a master's degree from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. She has won multiple awards and has over ten years of experience in futures derivatives market research [74]. - Du Bingqin: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with a master's degree in applied economics from the University of Wisconsin - Madison. She has won multiple awards and has in - depth research on the energy industry [75]. - Di Yilin: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, with a master's degree in finance. She has won multiple awards and is good at data analysis [76]. - Peng Haibo: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with a master's degree in engineering from China University of Petroleum (East China) and a mid - level economist title [77]. 3.6 Contact Information - Company address: Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone - Company phone: 021 - 80212222 - Fax: 021 - 80212200 - Customer service hotline: 400 - 700 - 7979 - Zip code: 200127 [79]