中辉期货日刊-20250523

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Weak [1] - LPG: Weak [1] - L: Weak [1] - PP: Weak [1] - PVC: Weak [1] - PX: Low - long [1] - PTA: Low - long [1] - Ethylene glycol: Low - long [1] - Glass: Weak [1] - Soda ash: Weak [1] - Methanol: Short on rebounds [1] - Urea: Cautious low - long [1] - Asphalt: Sideways [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple chemical products. For crude oil, OPEC+ may continue to increase production in July, leading to weaker prices. For products like LPG, L, PP, PVC, glass, and soda ash, their fundamentals are weak, showing downward trends. PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol have improving fundamentals and present low - long opportunities. Methanol is suitable for shorting on rebounds, and urea can be considered for cautious low - long positions. Asphalt shows a sideways trend [1]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - 行情回顾: Overnight, international oil prices fell. WTI dropped 0.60%, Brent dropped 0.72%, and SC dropped 1.22% [2] - 基本逻辑: The main drivers are the approaching summer consumption peak and OPEC+ entering the production - increasing stage. Supply - related events include the expiration of Chevron's operating license and Saudi's production and export changes. Demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are adjusted. Inventory data shows changes in various types of oil inventories in the US [3] - 策略推荐: In the long - term, due to factors like the tariff war, new energy impact, and OPEC+ expansion, oil supply is in surplus, with prices fluctuating between 55 - 65 dollars. In the short - term, it is weak with support, and SC is in the range of [445 - 465] [4] 3.2 LPG - 行情回顾: On May 22, the PG main contract closed at 4150 yuan/ton, down 0.53%. Spot prices in different regions had different changes [6] - 基本逻辑: The cost - end oil price is consolidating, and LPG's fundamentals are bearish. Factors include increasing commodity volume, factory inventory, and a sharp rise in warehouse receipts [7] - 策略推荐: In the long - term, it is bearish due to OPEC+ production increase and tariff impacts. Technically, it is weak, and short positions can be partially closed. PG is in the range of [4110 - 4140] [8] 3.3 L - 行情回顾: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 8 yuan/ton day - on - day [10] - 基本逻辑: After the Sino - US tariff boost, the supply reduction has limited price support. Next week, production is expected to increase, and the market may be weak with a fluctuation range of 50 - 100 yuan/ton [11] - 策略推荐: Look for short opportunities [11] 3.4 PP - 行情回顾: The L - PP09 spread decreased by 9 yuan/ton day - on - day [13] - 基本逻辑: The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to improve significantly, with a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern. It is expected to be weak in the short - term, focusing on cost and supply changes [14] - 策略推荐: Short on rebounds [14] 3.5 PVC - 行情回顾: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 3 yuan/ton month - on - month [15] - 基本逻辑: The domestic PVC market is weak. Supply is expected to increase, demand is low, and cost support is weak. The price is expected to be in the range of 4650 - 4850 yuan/ton [16] - 策略推荐: Participate in the short - term [16] 3.6 PX - 行情回顾: On May 16, the PX spot price in East China was 6625 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6744 yuan/ton. The basis in East China was - 119 yuan/ton [17] - 基本逻辑: PX devices are under planned maintenance, relieving supply pressure. The PXN spread is improved but still low, and the short - process PX - MX spread is seasonally high. The demand side may weaken due to PTA device maintenance [18] - 策略推荐: PX is in the range of [6610, 6730] [19] 3.7 PTA - 行情回顾: On May 16, the PTA spot price in East China was 4995 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4774 yuan/ton. The TA9 - 1 spread was 86 yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was 221 yuan/ton [20] - 基本逻辑: PTA device maintenance reduces supply pressure. The demand side is good with high polyester load and improved terminal weaving. Inventory is decreasing [21] - 策略推荐: Look for low - long opportunities [21] 3.8 Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - 行情回顾: On May 16, the MEG spot price in East China was 4568 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4460 yuan/ton. The EG6 - 9 spread was 55 yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was 108 yuan/ton [22] - 基本逻辑: Device maintenance and low arrival volume relieve supply pressure. The demand side is good with high polyester load and improved terminal weaving. Inventory is decreasing [23] - 策略推荐: EG is in the range of [4400, 4480] [24] 3.9 Glass - 行情回顾: The spot market price decreased, the futures closed down, the basis widened, and the warehouse receipts decreased [25] - 基本逻辑: Macroeconomic factors reduce market risk appetite. The glass demand is weak in the medium - term. The supply - demand contradiction is prominent, and the inventory is concentrated upstream and mid - stream [26] - 策略推荐: None provided 3.10 Soda Ash - 行情回顾: The heavy - soda spot price decreased, the futures fluctuated at a low level, the basis fluctuated slightly, the warehouse receipts decreased, and the forecasts increased [28] - 基本逻辑: The supply reduction due to maintenance provides some support, but new capacity release may lead to oversupply. The demand is weak, and the inventory is high [29] - 策略推荐: SA is in the range of [1260, 1290] [29] 3.11 Methanol - 行情回顾: On May 16, the methanol spot price in East China was 2375 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2284 yuan/ton. The basis in East China was 113 yuan/ton, and the port basis was 91 yuan/ton [30] - 基本逻辑: The supply side has high pressure with high - load device operation and increasing arrival volume. The demand side improves slightly with MTO device load stabilizing. The cost support is weak [31] - 策略推荐: MA is in the range of [2235, 2265] [31]