光大期货黑色商品日报-20250523

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report's industry investment rating provided in the content. 2. Report's Core View - Steel: The rebar market showed narrow - range consolidation. With production increasing, inventory decline narrowing, and apparent demand falling, the short - term outlook is for continued narrow - range movement. The spot market demand has some resilience but is gradually weakening [1]. - Iron Ore: The futures price is expected to show a weakening and volatile trend. Supply has increased significantly, while iron - making output has decreased, and there are mixed factors in the market [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term. The downstream procurement is slow, and the market confidence is low [1]. - Coke: The coke market is likely to experience weak and volatile trends. Production is at a high level, and demand may decline marginally as the temperature rises [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The futures price of manganese silicon increased significantly. Although there are news - driven factors, the sustainability is expected to be relatively weak [1]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon market is expected to move in a narrow range at a low level. Terminal demand is weak, and there is limited upward driving force [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research View - Steel: The closing price of the rebar 2510 contract was 3061 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with an increase of 0.52 million lots in positions. The national rebar production increased by 4.95 tons week - on - week to 231.48 tons, social inventory decreased by 18.42 tons to 416.46 tons, and factory inventory increased by 2.77 tons to 187.76 tons. Apparent demand fell by 13.16 tons to 247.13 tons [1]. - Iron Ore: The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract i2509 was 727 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.5 yuan/ton or 0.2% from the previous trading day. Global iron ore shipments increased significantly, iron - making output decreased by 1.17 tons to 243.6 tons, and port and steel mill inventories decreased [1]. - Coking Coal: The closing price of the coking coal 2509 contract was 827.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.5 yuan/ton or 1.72% from the previous trading day. The downstream procurement was slow, and the market confidence was weak [1]. - Coke: The closing price of the coke 2509 contract was 1406.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton or 0.78% from the previous trading day. The coke production was at a high level, and demand may decline marginally [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The main contract of manganese silicon futures closed at 5998 yuan/ton, a 3.84% increase. The South African government's policy may lead to a reduction in manganese ore shipments, but the sustainability of the price increase is weak [1]. - Ferrosilicon: The main contract of ferrosilicon futures closed at 5622 yuan/ton, a 0.14% increase. Terminal demand is weak, and the steel mill's procurement price decreased [1]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spread: For example, the 10 - 1 spread of rebar was - 20.0, with a 4.0 increase; the 9 - 1 spread of iron ore was 35.5, unchanged [4]. - Basis: The basis of the rebar 10 - contract was 129.0, unchanged; the basis of the iron ore 09 - contract was 79.0, a decrease of 4.0 [4]. - Spot Price: The Shanghai rebar spot price was 3190.0, unchanged; the PB powder spot price at Rizhao Port was 760.0, a decrease of 5.0 [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Main Contract Price: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [7][9][12][15]. - Main Contract Basis: There are charts showing the basis of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [18][19][22][24]. - Inter - period Contract Spread: There are charts showing the spreads of 10 - 01 and 01 - 05 contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [26][30][32][34][35][38]. - Inter - variety Contract Spread: There are charts showing the spreads and ratios such as the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coke - iron ore ratio, coal - coke ratio, and double - silicon spread [40][42][44]. - Rebar Profit: There are charts showing the rebar main contract's on - paper profit, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit [45][50]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Current assistant director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and director of black research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [52]. - Zhang Xiaojin: Current director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the coal futures field [52]. - Liu Xi: Current black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [52]. - Zhang Chunjie: Current black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [53].