国新国证期货早报-20250523

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On May 22, A-share market indices declined, with Shanghai Composite Index down 0.22% to 3380.19, Shenzhen Component Index down 0.72% to 10219.62, and ChiNext Index down 0.96% to 2045.57. The trading volume was 1.1 trillion yuan, a decrease of over 70 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 3913.86, down 2.52 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On May 22, the coke weighted index closed at 1407.4 yuan, down 12.1, and the coking coal weighted index closed at 827.7 yuan, down 14.2. Coke supply is ample due to high coking enterprise profits and production, while steel mill iron - water output may have peaked. Coking coal supply is stable with domestic mine复产 and slightly reduced Mongolian imports, but port inventory is rising due to weak demand [1]. Zhengzhou Sugar - After five - day decline, ICE sugar rebounded on Wednesday. Zhengzhou sugar futures contract 2509 rose in the morning on May 22 but fell in the afternoon due to long - liquidation. In the night session, it declined due to falling crude oil prices. In April 2025, China's imports of syrup and sugar premix totaled 85,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 106,000 tons [1]. Rubber - On May 22, Shanghai rubber futures had a technical rebound during the day and narrow - range fluctuations at night. In April 2025, China's rubber tire production was 102 million pieces, up 3.1% year - on - year, and 1 - 4 month production was 385.58 million pieces, up 3.7%. Synthetic rubber production in April was 743,000 tons, up 15.2% year - on - year, and 1 - 4 month production was 2.947 million tons, up 11.3% [2]. Palm Oil - On May 22, palm oil futures declined within a range, with the main contract P2509 closing at 7994 yuan, down 1.36%. In May 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil production is expected to increase by about 5% month - on - month, and exports by about 10% [2][3]. Soybean Meal - On May 22, CBOT soybean futures rose. As of May 15, US soybean export sales increased by 9% week - on - week. US soybean planting and emergence are better than normal, but recent rain may delay Midwest planting. In the domestic market, on May 22, soybean meal futures were stable, and about 12 million tons of imported soybeans are expected to arrive in May, leading to a supply - abundant market [3]. Live Hogs - On May 22, live hog futures declined slightly, with the LH2509 contract closing at 13,580 yuan/ton, down 0.51%. Before the Dragon Boat Festival, slaughterhouses have stocking demand, but hot weather, diet changes, and weak fresh pork sales lead to a supply - abundant market. In the long - term, high sow inventory will keep the market weak [4]. Shanghai Copper - In early May, China's industrial added - value growth slowed, and real - estate investment was weak, leading to lower - than - expected copper demand. The global copper concentrate supply is abundant, and SHFE copper inventory increased. The import window opened, and short - term copper is in an adjustment period, with a key support at 77,500 yuan/ton [4]. Iron Ore - On May 22, iron ore futures rose slightly, with the 2509 contract closing at 727 yuan, up 0.14%. Overseas shipments increased, arrivals decreased, and port inventory decreased slightly. Steel mills' high profitability limits short - term production cuts, and iron ore will likely fluctuate [5]. Asphalt - On May 22, asphalt futures rose slightly, with the 2507 contract closing at 3539 yuan, up 0.45%. In June, refinery asphalt production will increase. Northern demand is rising, but southern demand may be affected by the rainy season, and asphalt will likely fluctuate [5]. Logs - On May 22, log futures opened at 778.5, closed at 777.5, and increased positions by 335 lots. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu were stable. Port inventory decreased to a three - month low, but overall demand is weak, and the market is waiting for price stabilization [5]. Cotton - On the night of May 22, Zhengzhou cotton futures closed at 13,450 yuan/ton. Cotton inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 46 lots. In Pakistan, new cotton is on the market with limited transactions, and spinning mills are reducing inventory [6]. Steel - On May 22, rebar futures rb2510 closed at 3061 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil futures hc2510 closed at 3210 yuan/ton. This week, steel production decreased seasonally. Rebar demand declined significantly, and mill inventory increased. The market is now driven by fundamentals, and negative feedback expectations should be monitored [6]. Alumina - On May 22, alumina futures ao2509 closed at 3216 yuan/ton. The impact of the Guinea incident is uncertain, and short - term spot is tight, but supply may increase as profits recover, and price corrections should be watched [7]. Shanghai Aluminum - On May 22, Shanghai aluminum futures al2507 closed at 20,210 yuan/ton. The impact of the Guinea incident on bauxite supply is to be evaluated. Aluminum demand is seasonally weak, and short - term processing enterprise operating rates will decline. Low inventory supports prices, but macro - negatives and weak demand limit upside [7]. Lithium Carbonate - The battery - grade lithium carbonate index price rose 44 yuan/ton to 63,380 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was stable at 63,050 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade at 61,450 yuan/ton. The market is weak, with few trades, and cost support is weakening [8].