招商期货商品期货早班车-20250523

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided about the report industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views - The market conditions of various commodities are complex and diverse, with different trends and influencing factors in different sectors. For example, in the base metals market, aluminum prices are expected to be weak in the short - term, while alumina shows a strong - reality and weak - expectation pattern. In the energy and chemical market, the supply - demand relationship and price trends of different products vary, and factors such as new device production, downstream demand, and international policies have significant impacts on prices [1][6]. - In the agricultural product market, the prices of different products are affected by factors such as supply, demand, weather, and trade policies. For example, the price of soybeans is affected by South American and American production and trade policies, and the price of corn is expected to stabilize and rebound [3]. - In the shipping market, the Geneva Conference has brought changes to the shipping market, with different trends in the US and European routes, and the short - term EC is expected to be strong, but there are risks of insufficient demand [8]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Base Metals Aluminum - Market performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum 2507 contract increased by 0.40% to 20,270 yuan/ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 260 yuan/ton. The LME price was 2,458 US dollars/ton [1]. - Fundamentals: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. The aluminum product operating rate decreased slightly [1]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the actual consumption of aluminum is weakening. Although the tariff issue has eased, it takes time to affect physical demand. Aluminum prices are expected to be weak and volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. Alumina - Market performance: The closing price of the alumina 2509 contract decreased by 0.92% to 3,216 yuan/ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 105 yuan/ton [1]. - Fundamentals: Alumina plants had more phased maintenance and production cuts, and the operating capacity decreased. Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly [1]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, alumina shows a strong - reality and weak - expectation pattern due to Guinea's policy disturbances. It is recommended to buy call options for the near - term contract. If holding spot or futures long positions, sell out - of - the - money put options to reduce the premium cost [1]. Zinc - Market performance: The closing price of the zinc 2506 contract decreased by 0.55% to 22,455 yuan/ton. The domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 330 yuan/ton Back, and the overseas 0 - 3 month spread was 28.9 US dollars/ton Con. The social inventory decreased by 0.34 tons to 8.04 tons from May 19th to May 22nd [1]. - Fundamentals: The Russian Longxing Mine may face shutdown risks in June. Imported zinc ingots are arriving in China, but the import volume may be less than expected. The consumption is in the off - season, and the social inventory is increasing [1]. - Trading strategy: In the future, as some smelters end their maintenance and imported zinc ingots arrive, zinc prices may fall due to insufficient consumption support [1]. Lead - Market performance: The closing price of the lead 2506 contract decreased by 1.36% to 16,670 yuan/ton. The domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 0 yuan/ton Con, and the LME 0 - 3 month spread was 26.12 US dollars/ton Con. The social inventory decreased by 0.88 tons to 5.03 tons from May 19th to May 22nd [1]. - Fundamentals: The production of primary lead enterprises was relatively stable, and the inventory of factories decreased. The loss of secondary lead was slightly repaired, and the discount of secondary refined lead may increase. The production of lead - acid battery enterprises changed little, and the spot market transaction was difficult to improve significantly [1]. - Trading strategy: After the consumption enters the off - season, terminal orders are difficult to improve. It is recommended to buy when the price falls to the low point of the range [2]. Industrial Silicon - Market performance: The 2507 contract closed at 7,880 yuan, up 15 yuan from the previous day. The position decreased by 9,112 lots to 183,700 lots [2]. - Fundamentals: The supply is strong and the demand is weak. The resumption of production in Sichuan is obvious, and there are production cuts in Xinjiang. The demand for polysilicon has no increase, and the organic silicon industry may enter the annual maintenance stage [2]. - Trading strategy: Since the industry has not implemented effective and continuous production cuts, it is recommended to short on rebounds [2]. Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: The main 2507 contract closed at 62,140 yuan/ton, up 1.70% [2]. - Fundamentals: The supply - demand surplus situation has been alleviated but still exists. The weekly output of lithium carbonate decreased by 3.23% to 16,093 tons, and the estimated monthly output in May decreased by 2.27% to 72,134 tons. The demand growth is lower than expected, and the social inventory decreased by 141 tons to 131,779 tons this week [2]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the supply - demand surplus is alleviated, and the price is expected to fluctuate or rebound slightly. In the long - term, the demand expectation is pessimistic. It is recommended to hold short positions or short on rebounds [2]. Polysilicon - Market performance: The PS2507 contract closed at 36,080 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan from the previous day. The position increased by 3,806 lots to 77,300 lots, and the warehouse receipt increased by 10 lots to 460 lots [2]. - Fundamentals: The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is large. The supply - side production cut rumors need to be confirmed. In the long - term, the demand may decline, and the price center may move down [2]. - Trading strategy: If there is no further production cut, it is recommended to short on rebounds for the 07 contract [2]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market performance: The overnight CBOT soybeans rose without a strong driving force [3]. - Fundamentals: The supply in South America is loose in the near - term, and the sowing of new US soybeans is going smoothly. The demand is dominated by South America in the short - term, and the high - frequency demand of US soybeans is seasonally weak [3]. - Trading strategy: US soybeans are expected to be volatile, and the medium - term driving force lies in the yield game. The domestic soybean price may rebound due to customs clearance disturbances and follow the international market in the medium - term [3]. Corn - Market performance: The corn 2507 contract fluctuated narrowly, and the price of deep - processed corn decreased [3]. - Fundamentals: The supply - demand relationship has tightened marginally this year. The grain rights have transferred to channels, and the import of substitutes is expected to decrease. The futures price has fallen to a level with cost - performance compared to wheat and is expected to stabilize and rebound [3]. - Trading strategy: The futures price is supported near the minimum purchase price of wheat and is expected to gradually stabilize and rebound [3]. Sugar - Market performance: The Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract closed at 5,835 yuan/ton, down 0.6%. The basis of Guangxi spot - Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract was - 30 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamentals: The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 crushing season. The domestic sugar market is in the pure sales period, and the inventory is low. The import profit has opened, and the domestic sugar mills' pricing may put pressure on the far - month contracts [4]. - Trading strategy: The price may rebound in the short - term and be bearish in the long - term [4]. Cotton - Market performance: The overnight US cotton price fell, and the international oil price continued to weaken. The domestic Zhengzhou cotton price continued to rise [4]. - Fundamentals: The national commercial cotton inventory decreased by 318,600 tons to 3.834 million tons from the end of April to May 15th, a decrease of 7.67% [4]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to wait and see and adopt a range - bound trading strategy [4]. Palm Oil - Market performance: The Malaysian palm oil market fell yesterday [4]. - Fundamentals: The supply in the production area is in the seasonal increase period, and the export has improved month - on - month. The ITS shows that the export from May 1st to 20th increased by 5.3% month - on - month [4]. - Trading strategy: The market is in a weak seasonal stage but not in a clear trend. It is necessary to pay attention to the production in the production area and the biodiesel policy [4]. Eggs - Market performance: The egg 2506 contract and the egg spot price both fell [4]. - Fundamentals: The breeding is in a loss state, and the number of old hens to be culled is expected to increase. The supply remains high, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate due to cost support [4]. - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to fluctuate due to sufficient supply and cost support [4]. Hogs - Market performance: The hog 2509 contract and the hog spot price both fell [4]. - Fundamentals: The hog supply continues to increase, the farmers' intention to hold and fatten hogs decreases, and the hog price is expected to fall gradually due to the increase in supply and the off - season demand [4]. - Trading strategy: The hog price is expected to decline gradually, and it is necessary to pay attention to the farmers' slaughter rhythm and the second - fattening trend [4]. Apples - Market performance: The price of apples is affected by extreme weather, and the market is worried about the new - season production [4]. - Fundamentals: The new - season apple production in the main production areas, especially in Shaanxi, is affected by hot and dry winds and cold snaps, and the fruit - setting is a problem. The current inventory is low, and the price is expected to remain high in the short - term. It is necessary to pay attention to the bagging situation at the end of May and the apple consumption [4]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - Market performance: The main LLDPE contract fell slightly yesterday. The North China low - price spot was 7,220 yuan/ton, the 09 basis was 40 yuan higher than the futures price, and the basis weakened [6]. - Fundamentals: The supply is increasing as new devices are put into production, and the import is expected to decrease slightly. The demand for agricultural films is in the off - season, and other demands are stable. The Sino - US tariff negotiation is positive, and attention should be paid to the export situation [6]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the market will be volatile, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short on rebounds for the far - month contracts as the supply - demand relationship becomes looser [6]. PTA - Market performance: The PXCFR China price was 823 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 6,821 yuan/ton in RMB. The PTA East China spot price was 4,860 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 127 yuan/ton [6]. - Fundamentals: The supply of PX is low, and the supply of PTA is increasing. The polyester load is at a historical high, and the inventory is at a historical low. The polyester factories have announced production cut plans [6]. - Trading strategy: The PX and PTA are in a de - stocking pattern. It is recommended to take profits on long - short spreads and be cautious about unilateral trading. Pay attention to the short - position opportunities for far - month PTA [6]. Rubber - Market performance: The main RU2509 contract fell 0.3% to 14,810 yuan/ton on Thursday [6]. - Fundamentals: The price of Thai glue remained unchanged, and the price of cup glue decreased. The spot trading was average. The operating rate of tire enterprises increased slightly [6]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to be weak and volatile. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [6]. Methanol - Market performance: The methanol 2509 contract closed at 2,241 yuan/ton, down 1.28% from the previous day [6]. - Fundamentals: The coal price is falling, and the cost support is weak. The domestic methanol production capacity utilization rate has increased significantly, and the import is expected to recover. The demand from the olefin sector is weak, and the traditional demand is stable but has passed the peak season. The coastal inventory is at a low level but is increasing [6][7]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the supply is strong and the demand is weak, and it is recommended to adopt a short - position strategy for the 09 contract [7]. PP - Market performance: The main PP contract fell slightly yesterday. The East China PP spot price was 7,120 yuan/ton, the 09 basis was 120 yuan higher than the futures price, and the basis was stable [7]. - Fundamentals: The supply is increasing as the short - term maintenance is ending, new devices are put into production, and the import of LPG and the operation of PDH devices are normalizing. The demand from downstream industries such as home appliances and automobiles is affected by the Sino - US tariff negotiation [7]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the market will be volatile, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short on rebounds for the far - month contracts as the supply - demand relationship becomes looser [7]. MEG - Market performance: The MEG East China spot price was 4,501 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 96 yuan/ton [7]. - Fundamentals: The supply has decreased due to unexpected device maintenance, and the import is expected to be normal. The polyester load is at a historical high, and the inventory is at a historical low. The polyester factories have announced production cut plans [7]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to be strong in the short - term, but it is recommended to be cautious about long positions as the valuation is high [7]. Crude Oil - Market performance: The oil price fell again yesterday. The focus of trading is on the OPEC+ meeting on June 1st and the fifth - round negotiation between the US and Iran tonight [7]. - Fundamentals: If OPEC+ decides to increase production by 410,000 barrels per day, the oil price may fall; if the production increase stops, the oil price may rebound. If the US - Iran negotiation fails, the oil price may rise; if an agreement is reached, the Iranian production may increase by 500,000 barrels per day, which is negative for the oil price [7]. Benzene and Styrene - Market performance: The main contract fell slightly yesterday. The East China spot price was 7,700 yuan/ton, and the import window was closed [7]. - Fundamentals: The inventory of pure benzene is normal and is expected to increase slightly in May. The inventory of styrene is low and is expected to change from a slight increase to a slight decrease in May. The downstream profit is in a loss state, and the inventory of finished products is decreasing. The home appliance production in May is okay, and the export of plastic products and home appliances may accelerate due to the Sino - US tariff negotiation [7]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the market will be volatile, and it is recommended to conduct long - short spreads on the monthly difference [7]. Shipping European Line Container Shipping - Market performance: After the Geneva Conference, the main contract fell 0.95%. Most shipowners announced to increase the European line freight rate on June 1st [8]. - Fundamentals: The US - China tariff reduction has led to an increase in the US - line cargo volume, but the European - line cargo volume is still moderate. The shipowners will adjust the US - line supply, and new large - scale European - line ships are still being launched [8]. - Trading strategy: The short - term EC is expected to be strong, but it is necessary to prevent the freight rate from not meeting expectations due to insufficient demand. It is recommended to conduct long - short spreads for the 06 contract [8].