光大期货工业硅&多晶硅日报-20250523

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On May 22, polysilicon showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with the main contract 2507 closing at 36,080 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 1.14%, and the open interest increasing by 3,806 lots to 77,294 lots. The SMM polysilicon N-type silicon material price was 36,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable N-type silicon material dropped to 36,500 yuan/ton. The spot premium over the main contract narrowed to 420 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon showed a volatile and slightly weaker trend, with the main contract 2507 closing at 7,880 yuan/ton, an intraday decrease of 0.19%, and the open interest increasing by 9,112 lots to 184,000 lots. The Baichuan industrial silicon spot reference price was 8,041 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 553 grade dropped to 8,050 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 155 yuan/ton [2]. - The increase in production by large factories in Xinjiang has triggered pessimistic market expectations. With the lack of a reversal driver for demand and the continuous increase in short positions in the futures market, a defensive short - selling strategy can be continued for industrial silicon. Polysilicon has a structural contradiction between near - term delivery shortages and a rapid loss of demand. After the squeeze - out pressure ends, the logic of weakening fundamentals returns. The main contract is benchmarked against the delivery base price, and there is no power for a short - term sharp rise. Short positions can be established on rebounds [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Viewpoints - Polysilicon and industrial silicon showed different trends on May 22. For industrial silicon, due to factory production increases and weak demand, a defensive short - selling strategy is recommended. For polysilicon, after the end of the squeeze - out pressure, short positions can be established on rebounds [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures Settlement Prices: The futures settlement prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon's main and near - month contracts remained unchanged on May 22 and 23 [4]. - Spot Prices: The spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon and polysilicon are provided, and the price of the lowest deliverable grade and the spot premium are also given. For example, the SMM polysilicon N - type silicon material price was 36,500 yuan/ton, and the Baichuan industrial silicon spot reference price was 8,041 yuan/ton on May 22 [2][4]. - Inventory: For industrial silicon, the total social inventory increased by 1,550 tons to 420,800 tons. For polysilicon, the total social inventory increased by 0.1 million tons to 28.8 million tons. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's polysilicon inventory increased significantly by 210,000 tons to 270,000 tons [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices: Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][9]. - Downstream Product Prices: Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [12][16][18]. - Inventory: Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, and the inventory of DMC and polysilicon [21][22][25]. - Cost - Profit: Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, and the cost - profit of DMC, polysilicon, and the aluminum alloy processing industry [28][30][34]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience in the non - ferrous metals and new energy industries and have achieved certain results in research and service [36][37].