外汇市场展望：山重水复

Group 1: USD Outlook - The USD index has experienced a decline from a high of 109 at the beginning of 2025 to below 100 in April, primarily influenced by tariff policies and market sentiment[4] - Short-term fluctuations in the USD index are expected, with limited downward space before potential Fed rate cuts[8] - Long-term pressures on the USD include ongoing debt issues, recession risks, and the narrative of "de-dollarization" which may hinder its rebound[9] Group 2: EUR Outlook - The EUR is projected to maintain strength, with a target range of 1.08-1.18 against the USD, supported by improved economic sentiment and corporate earnings in the Eurozone[16] - The European Central Bank's anticipated rate cuts have been largely priced in, and any economic improvement could bolster the EUR further[15] - Downside risks for the EUR include the volatility of US tariff policies and the need for structural reforms in the Eurozone[16] Group 3: JPY Outlook - The JPY may see gradual appreciation due to ongoing US-Japan trade negotiations, but lacks long-term support due to potential economic recession in Japan[17] - The long-term USD/JPY exchange rate is expected to fluctuate between 137-145[17] Group 4: GBP Outlook - The GBP has recently strengthened, surpassing 1.3470, driven by persistent inflation and reduced tariff risks following successful trade negotiations[22] - The expected trading range for the GBP is between 1.30-1.39, supported by a resilient UK economy and favorable trade agreements[22] Group 5: AUD Outlook - The AUD is anticipated to recover gradually within a range of 0.64-0.69 against the USD, bolstered by stable trade relations with non-USD economies, particularly China[25] - The Australian economy shows resilience, with significant job growth reported in April, maintaining a low unemployment rate of 4.1%[25]