原油价格走低，油脂价格承压

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is Neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil prices are falling, putting pressure on the prices of vegetable oils [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 7,994 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan or 1.36% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 7,760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 54 yuan or 0.69%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,405 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan or 0.37% [1] - Spot: In Guangdong, the spot price of palm oil was 8,560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan or 0.35%, with a spot basis of P09 + 566 yuan, an increase of 80 yuan; in Tianjin, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan or 0.50%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 240 yuan, an increase of 14 yuan; in Jiangsu, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,590 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan or 0.31%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 185 yuan, an increase of 5 yuan [1] Recent Market Information Summary - Global soybean: The International Grains Council (IGC) maintained the 2025/26 global soybean production at 428 million tons, increased the trade volume by 2 million tons to 183 million tons, increased the consumption by 2 million tons to 429 million tons, and decreased the ending stocks by 2 million tons to 81 million tons [2] - Malaysian palm oil: In May, the palm oil production in Malaysia increased smoothly. From May 1 - 20, the production in South Malaysia increased by 3.7% month - on - month, with an average increase of 8.6% in the same period of the past 5 years. It is expected that the production in May will increase by about 5% month - on - month. In terms of exports, from May 1 - 20, the export volume increased by 5.25% month - on - month, with an average increase of 9.0% in the same period of the past 5 years. Due to Indonesia's increase in export fees, it is expected that the palm oil exports in Malaysia in May will increase by about 10% month - on - month [2] - International prices: The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (June shipment) increased by 14 dollars/ton to 599 dollars/ton; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (July shipment) increased by 14 dollars/ton to 589 dollars/ton. The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (June shipment) decreased by 6 dollars/ton to 1,097 dollars/ton; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (August shipment) decreased by 7 dollars/ton to 1,040 dollars/ton. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (June shipment) remained unchanged at 1,050 dollars/ton; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (August shipment) remained unchanged at 1,030 dollars/ton. The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (June shipment) increased by 10 dollars/ton to 467 dollars/ton; the C&F price of US West soybeans (June shipment) increased by 10 dollars/ton to 462 dollars/ton; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (June shipment) increased by 9 dollars/ton to 444 dollars/ton. The import soybean premium for the Mexican Gulf (June shipment) remained unchanged at 212 cents/bushel; the import soybean premium for the US West Coast (June shipment) remained unchanged at 185 cents/bushel; the import soybean premium for Brazilian ports (June shipment) increased by 18 cents/bushel to 148 cents/bushel [2]