集港出口意愿提升，尿素港口库存走高

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating is neutral, and it is expected that the urea market will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range [3] Core Viewpoints - The restriction on urea exports has been lifted, and manufacturers are exporting in an orderly manner with self - discipline. The willingness to ship goods to ports for export has increased, leading to a rise in urea port inventories. Urea production facilities that were shut down have restarted, and the operating rates of both coal - based and gas - based production have increased. The supply side remains at a high level. The operating rates of downstream compound fertilizers and melamine have decreased month - on - month, and the rigid demand from downstream industries has weakened. Due to drought and high temperatures in the north and heavy rainfall in the south, agricultural demand is lukewarm, and inventories in urea factories have accumulated. There are expectations of an increase in short - term downstream agricultural and export demand for urea [2] Summaries by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - It includes charts of Shandong urea small - particle market price, Henan urea small - particle market price, Shandong main - continuous basis, Henan main - continuous basis, urea main continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread [7][8][16][18] 2. Urea Production - It involves charts of urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss [18] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - It contains charts of production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [20][25][26] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - It consists of charts of urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, the difference between urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea and China's FOB minus 30, the difference between urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia and China's FOB, urea export profit, and disk export profit [28][33][41] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - It has charts of compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and pending order days [47][43] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It includes charts of upstream in - factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of Hebei's urea downstream manufacturers, futures warehouse receipts, main contract holding volume, and main contract trading volume [46][48][51] Market Data - Price and Basis: On May 22, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,849 yuan/ton (- 6); the ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,890 yuan/ton (0); the small - particle price in Shandong was 1,880 yuan/ton (+ 0); the small - particle price in Jiangsu was 1,900 yuan/ton (- 10); the price of small - block anthracite was 660 yuan/ton (+ 0). The basis in Shandong was 31 yuan/ton (+ 6); the basis in Henan was 41 yuan/ton (+ 6); the basis in Jiangsu was 51 yuan/ton (- 4). The urea production profit was 413 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the export profit was 447 yuan/ton (- 6) [1] - Supply Side: As of May 22, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 88.56% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 91.74 million tons (+ 10.02), and the inventory of port samples was 20.30 million tons (+ 4.00) [1] - Demand Side: As of May 22, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 37.57% (- 2.69%); the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 66.49% (- 8.33%); the advance order days of urea enterprises were 5.94 days (- 0.35) [1]