新世纪期货交易提示（2025-5-23）-20250523

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Short-term long allocation, medium and long-term short allocation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating weakly [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Oscillating [2] - SSE 50 Index Futures/Options: Rebounding [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Upward [4] - 2-year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [4] - 5-year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [4] - 10-year Treasury Bond: Declining [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: Strong oscillation [4] - Pulp: Oscillating [5] - Logs: Bottom oscillation [5] - Soybean oil: Oscillating [5] - Palm oil: Oscillating [5] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating [5] - Soybean meal: Rebounding [5] - Rapeseed meal: Rebounding [5] - Soybean No. 2: Rebounding [5] - Soybean No. 1: Rebounding [5] - Live pigs: Oscillating [8] - Rubber: Strong oscillation [8] - PX: On the sidelines [8] - PTA: On the sidelines [9] - MEG: On the sidelines [9] - PR: On the sidelines [9] - PF: On the sidelines [9] Core Viewpoints - The previous upward momentum driven by policies and sentiment in the iron ore, rolled steel, and rebar markets is gradually weakening, and they will return to fundamentals in the short term. The coal and coke market follows the trend of finished products, and the glass market lacks upward momentum in the off-season [2]. - The stock index market shows different trends, and the bond market is in a narrow oscillation. The gold market is affected by factors such as interest rate and tariff policies, and the silver market is expected to oscillate strongly [2][4]. - The pulp and log markets are in a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the oil and fat market is expected to oscillate. The meal market may rebound, and the agricultural product market shows different trends [5][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: The short-term upward momentum weakens, and it returns to fundamentals. It has a relatively high valuation in the black sector and is mainly allocated long. The daily pig iron output decreases, the port inventory is relatively high, and it should be treated with a short bias in the medium and long term [2]. - Coking coal and coke: The supply and demand of coking coal are loose, the profit of coking enterprises improves, the pig iron output of steel mills decreases slightly, and the supply of coke increases. The overall market follows the trend of finished products [2]. - Rolled steel and rebar: The short-term demand decline is slow, the supply increases and the demand decreases, the inventory is still in the process of destocking, but the Meiyu season may affect the terminal demand. The steel price faces phased pressure [2]. - Glass: The daily melting volume fluctuates slightly, the spot price drops slightly, the profit is squeezed, the inventory increases significantly, and the demand is difficult to recover significantly in the long term [2]. Financial Industry - Stock index futures/options: The performance of different stock index futures is different. The capital inflows into the banking and land transportation sectors, and the capital outflows from the fine chemical and chemical fiber sectors. The stock index long positions can be held [2][4]. - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond rises, the market interest rate consolidates, and the Treasury bond trend is in a narrow oscillation. The Treasury bond long positions can be held lightly [4]. - Gold and silver: The gold pricing mechanism is changing, and the current upward logic has not completely reversed. The silver market is expected to oscillate strongly [4]. Light Industry - Pulp: The spot market price drops slightly, the cost support weakens, the papermaking industry profit is low, the demand is in the off-season, and the pulp price is expected to oscillate [5]. - Logs: The downstream demand is in the off-season, the supply pressure is relatively weak, the inventory is decreasing, and the log price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [5]. Oil and Fat Industry - Oil and fat: The supply of the three major oils is abundant, the current is the traditional consumption off-season, but the spot consumption improves before the Dragon Boat Festival. The oil and fat market is expected to oscillate [5]. - Meal: The inventory of US soybeans may be further tightened, the planting progress in some areas of the US Midwest is slow, and the meal market may rebound [5]. Agricultural Products Industry - Live pigs: The overall supply is tight, the demand is in the off-season, the secondary fattening demand supports the price, and the pig price is expected to oscillate [8]. - Rubber: The supply is relatively stable, the cost support is significant, the demand is gradually recovering, the inventory accumulation speed slows down, and the rubber price is expected to oscillate strongly [8]. Polyester Industry - PX: The domestic PX load oscillates and declines, the demand side PTA load rebounds, and the PX price is expected to fluctuate with the oil price [8]. - PTA: The PXN spread is around $260/ton, the spot TA processing margin is around 392 yuan/ton, the TA load drops to around 77%, and the PTA supply and demand are in a state of destocking [9]. - MEG: The domestic MEG load drops to around 58.25%, the port inventory decreases, the raw material end is weak, and the MEG market fluctuates widely [9]. - PR: The cost support is weak, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the polyester bottle chip price may be adjusted weakly [9]. - PF: The downstream orders are insufficient, the cost increase may not continue, and the polyester staple fiber market is expected to be sorted weakly [9].