光大期货煤化工商品日报-20250523

Group 1: Investment Ratings - All three commodities (urea, soda ash, and glass) are rated as "Oscillating" [1] Group 2: Core Views - Urea market is in short - term supply - demand game with clear ceiling for spot prices. Without new drivers, the futures market will continue wide - range oscillation. Attention should be paid to demand fulfillment and weather [1] - Soda ash market has limited new drivers in the short - term. Futures prices may continue range - bound oscillation, and the long - term pattern remains loose. Monitor industry开工 changes and demand follow - up rhythm [1] - Glass market lacks obvious positive support. With prices at a relative bottom, the market may see some purchasing by industry players. Before clear positive factors emerge, the market will be in bottom - wide range oscillation. Follow downstream low - price purchasing and macro/market sentiment [1] Group 3: Summary by Section Market Information Urea - On May 22, urea futures warehouse receipts were 7573, up 25 from the previous day, with 0 valid forecasts [4] - On May 22, urea daily production was 20.46 tons, down 0.02 tons from the previous day and up 3.12 tons year - on - year. The operating rate was 88.96%, up 8.89 percentage points year - on - year [4] - As of May 22, domestic small - particle urea spot prices in various regions were mostly flat. For example, Shandong was 1880 yuan/ton, Henan was 1890 yuan/ton [4] - As of May 21, domestic urea enterprise inventory was 91.74 tons, up 10.02 tons or 12.26% week - on - week [5] Soda Ash & Glass - On May 22, soda ash futures warehouse receipts were 147, down 2170 from the previous day, with 2711 valid forecasts; glass futures warehouse receipts were 3459, down 109 from the previous day [7] - On May 22, soda ash spot prices in various regions were flat. For example, North China's light soda ash was 1400 yuan/ton, heavy soda ash was 1500 yuan/ton [7] - As of the week of May 22, soda ash production was 66.38 tons, down 1.39 tons or 2.04% week - on - week; the capacity utilization rate was 78.63%, down 1.64 percentage points week - on - week [7] - As of May 22, soda ash factory inventory was 167.68 tons, down 1.07 tons or 0.63% from Monday [8] - On May 22, the average price of the float glass market was 1240 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton day - on - day; the daily production was 15.67 tons, unchanged day - on - day [8] - As of May 22, the inventory of domestic float glass sample enterprises was 6776.9 million weight cases, down 31.3 million weight cases or 0.46% week - on - week, up 13.67% year - on - year. The inventory days were 30.6 days, down 0.4 days from last week [8] Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts including those related to the closing prices, basis, trading volume and open interest, and price spreads of urea and soda ash, as well as the price trends of urea and soda ash spot, and the futures price spreads of urea - methanol and glass - soda ash [11][12][17] Research Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhang Xiaojin, Zhang Linglu, and Sun Chengzhen, who are responsible for different aspects of resource - related research and have won various industry honors [25]