新能源及有色金属日报：目前仓单去化明显，升贴水预计回升-20250523

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper investment rating: Neutral; Arbitrage: Suspended; Option strategy: short put @ 74,000 yuan/ton [6][7] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are expected to be in a volatile pattern, with an operating range of approximately 75,000 - 79,500 yuan/ton. Due to high copper prices and month - to - month spreads, downstream procurement is cautious, and inventory may still increase slightly. With the release of some delivery goods this week, it is difficult to maintain high premiums [6][7] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Important Data 1.1 Futures Quotes - On May 22, 2025, the main Shanghai copper futures contract opened at 78,010 yuan/ton and closed at 77,920 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.23% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session contract opened at 77,730 yuan/ton and closed at 77,820 yuan/ton, a 0.12% decrease from the afternoon close [1] 1.2 Spot Situation - On May 22, SMM's 1 electrolytic copper spot was at a premium of 110 - 160 yuan/ton to the current 2506 contract, with an average premium of 135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Low - priced goods had good trading volume. Currently, low - priced goods have been mostly purchased, and warehouse receipts have significantly decreased, but warehouse inventory has not decreased as expected. The premium is expected to have limited upward movement [2] 1.3 Important Information Summaries - Macro and Geopolitical: The Trump tax reform bill passed the House of Representatives and is to be reviewed by the Senate. The US Senate voted to terminate California's ban on the sale of fuel - powered vehicles. Fed Governor Waller said that if tariffs decrease, the Fed may cut interest rates in the second half of 2025. Iran vowed to respond "devastatingly" to any Israeli aggression [3] - Domestic: The central bank will conduct 500 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations on May 23 [3] - Mine End: NGEx Minerals announced a new discovery in the Lunahuasi copper - gold project in Argentina, with high - grade copper - gold porphyry systems. Solaris Resources and Royal Gold reached a 200 million - dollar financing agreement for the Warintza copper - gold project in Ecuador [4] - Smelting and Import: In March 2025, the global refined copper production was 2.5135 million tons, consumption was 2.493 million tons, with a surplus of 20,500 tons. From January to March, the production was 7.2832 million tons, consumption was 7.0125 million tons, with a surplus of 270,800 tons [5] - Consumption: Last week, copper prices fluctuated narrowly, and downstream consumption had limited improvement. Downstream enterprises mainly made just - in - time purchases at low prices [5] - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 1,925 tons to 166,525 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 9,464 tons to 31,754 tons. On May 19, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 1.399 million tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from the previous week [5] 2. Tables and Figures - The report provides 10 figures and 1 table, including TC prices, SMM1 copper premium quotes, price differences between refined and scrap copper, copper import profits and losses, and various inventory data [8] 3. Spot and Warehouse Receipt Data Table - The table shows data on copper prices, premiums, inventory, warehouse receipts, arbitrage, and import profitability for different time points (today, yesterday, last week, and one month ago) [29][30]