天然橡胶压力仍存低位震荡等待驱动

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - Short - term natural rubber is in a dilemma with no strong unilateral driver to break the trading range. It may still trade at low levels, and there is unlikely to be a smooth unilateral market. [2][17] - In the medium - to - long - term, there are increasing uncertainties affecting the market, including the supply data after June, the implementation of the EUDR Act, the macro - environment, weather conditions, and the result of the EU anti - dumping investigation. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see or short - term trading approach. [17] 3) Summary by Directory Upstream raw material prices are firm, and subsequent supply will gradually increase - Global natural rubber main producing areas have ended the dry season and entered the transition period, with raw material supply gradually recovering but not surging. Thailand postponed the rubber tapping season to June. [3] - As of May 22, Thai raw material prices are at a relatively high level in the past five years, and domestic prices are also on the high side. [3] Slow rubber inventory reduction and poor tire product sales - As of May 18, China's natural rubber social inventory was 134.2 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.3 million tons (0.96%). Qingdao's inventory also decreased, but the overall inventory reduction is slow. [5] - China's auto production and sales in the first four months reached record highs, but it did not significantly improve tire product sales. As of May 22, the capacity utilization rates of full - steel and semi - steel tire sample enterprises showed a mixed trend, and tire product inventory is slightly increasing. [9] Monitor the increase in zero - tariff imported rubber - In April 2025, China's natural rubber exports increased, and imports decreased compared with the previous month but increased year - on - year. [12] - Since December 1, 2024, China has implemented a zero - tariff policy for natural rubber imported from Laos, Myanmar, and Cambodia. The import volume in the first quarter increased significantly, slowing down the inventory reduction in Yunnan. [14] Summary and outlook - After a sharp decline in early April, natural rubber prices have been consolidating for over a month. Although some positive factors have pushed up the price center, high inventory and weak demand prevent effective breakthroughs. [15][17]