THDB(SH:600867) Orient Securities·2025-05-23 05:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 8.00 CNY, based on a 25x PE valuation for 2025 [2][5]. Core Insights - The impact of centralized procurement is gradually clearing, and the progress of the innovation pipeline is smooth [1]. - The company has adjusted its revenue and gross margin expectations downward due to the effects of centralized procurement, while also raising overall expense ratio expectations [2]. - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, primarily due to the implementation of a new round of insulin centralized procurement and inventory control by commercial clients [10]. - However, overseas revenue showed strong growth, with a nearly 80% year-on-year increase in the first quarter of 2025, indicating a recovery in revenue [10]. - The research pipeline is progressing well, with positive results from various clinical trials, including a dual-target inhibitor for gout [10]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue for 2023 was 3,075 million CNY, with a projected decline to 2,010 million CNY in 2024, followed by a recovery to 2,708 million CNY in 2025 [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to recover from a loss of 43 million CNY in 2024 to 630 million CNY in 2025 [4]. - The gross margin is projected to decrease from 80.1% in 2023 to 71.8% in 2025, while the net margin is expected to improve from -2.1% in 2024 to 23.3% in 2025 [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.32 CNY in 2025, up from a loss of 0.02 CNY in 2024 [4].