特朗普税改法通过，金价高位震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [8] - Options: On hold [8] Core Viewpoints - The recent long-term U.S. Treasury bond auctions have not been ideal, and yields have risen significantly. After Powell presented a new framework for interest rate policy, there are reports that the Fed is quietly buying Treasury bonds, which may benefit gold in the future. So, the current operation for gold is to buy on dips for hedging, with the buying range between 750 yuan/gram and 760 yuan/gram. Silver prices generally follow gold, so the current silver trend is also relatively strong, and the operation can also be to buy on dips for hedging, with the range between 8,150 yuan/kilogram and 8,200 yuan/kilogram [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The Trump tax reform bill passed the House of Representatives by a narrow margin and was sent to the Senate for deliberation. The U.S. Senate voted to pass a bill to end the ban on the sale of fuel-powered vehicles in California and sent it to Trump for signature. Fed Governor Waller said that if tariffs decline, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates in the second half of 2025. Geopolitically, Iran vowed to make a "devastating response" to any stupid act by Israel. Any Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities will be regarded as U.S. involvement. Iran has the ability but no intention to produce nuclear weapons. Gold prices have recently fallen after reaching a high and are currently maintaining a high-level volatile pattern [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On May 22, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 775.16 yuan/gram and closed at 780.10 yuan/gram, up 0.17% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume on that day was 307,544 lots, and the open interest was 224,053 lots. The night session of the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 775.22 yuan/gram and closed at 773.76 yuan/gram, down 0.71% from the afternoon close of the previous day. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 8,265 yuan/kilogram and closed at 8,301 yuan/kilogram, down 1.31% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume on that day was 763,517 lots, and the open interest was 383,991 lots. The night session of the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 8,236 yuan/kilogram and closed at 8,251 yuan/kilogram, down 0.52% from the afternoon close of the previous day [2] U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On May 22, 2025, the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond rate closed at 4.58%, a change of 0.10% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury bonds was 0.54%, down 4 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2502 contract, the long positions changed by 4 lots compared with the previous day, and the short positions changed by -424 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 522,685 lots, a decrease of 21.68% from the previous trading day. In the case of Shanghai Silver, on the Ag2502 contract, there were 480 long positions, and the short positions increased by -902 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 1,074,516 lots, a decrease of 9.88% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - In terms of precious metal ETFs, the gold ETF position was 923.89 tons yesterday, an increase of 4.01 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 14,132.67 tons, an increase of 77.77 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On May 22, 2025, in terms of domestic premiums, the domestic premium for gold was 3.50 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -459.58 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange yesterday was approximately 93.98, a decrease of 0.18% from the previous trading day. The price ratio of gold and silver in the overseas market was 99.65, a change of -0.18% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On the previous trading day (May 22, 2025), the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 60,470 kilograms, an increase of 3.63% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 330,696 kilograms, a decrease of 39.63% from the previous trading day. The delivery volume of gold was 20,258 kilograms, and the delivery volume of silver was 54,810 kilograms [7]