特朗普税收法案通过众议院，美国财政赤字担忧加剧

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for commodities and stock index futures is overall neutral, pending fundamental verification [4] Core Viewpoints - Short - term focus on economic fact verification, with attention to sensitive commodities like crude oil, shipping indices, and gold; long - term focus on stagflation allocation [1][3] - The risk of US tariff escalation is rising, which impacts global trade and inflation expectations [2] - Commodities should focus on the transmission of fundamentals, and beware of emotional shocks from US stock adjustments for industrial products [3] Summaries by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On May 7, "One Bank, One Administration, and One Commission" introduced a package of financial policies to boost the economy. In April, China's exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 0.2% year - on - year, slightly exceeding expectations. Exports to the US decreased by 21% year - on - year, while those to ASEAN increased by 20.8% year - on - year. Labor - intensive product exports were significantly impacted, with a year - on - year decrease of 1.7% [1] - On May 19, the People's Bank of China stated that it would implement and transmit a package of monetary and financial policy measures. On May 20, the one - year and five - year loan prime rates (LPR) were lowered to 3% and 3.5% respectively. On May 23, the central bank will conduct a 500 - billion - yuan MLF operation [1] - From May 9 - 12, Vice - Premier He Lifeng held talks with the US during his visit to Switzerland. The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress, with both sides promising to suspend some additional tariffs and establish a consultation mechanism [1] - On May 15, the Ministry of Commerce responded to the adjustment of China's counter - tariff measures against the US, stating that it would adjust accordingly due to the US revocation of additional tariffs on China and expressing an open attitude towards the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism [1] US Tariff Situation - On May 8, the UK and the US reached an agreement on tariff trade agreement terms, with a "tax rate + quota" restriction approach. The UK's exports to the US will face a minimum 10% tariff, and there may be export caps on specific products [2] - On May 17, US Treasury Secretary Besent warned that if countries do not negotiate "sincerely" before the tariff suspension period expires at the beginning of July and fail to reach a trade agreement, tariff rates will return to the "liberation day" level [2] - Japan's chief trade negotiator and Minister of Economic Revitalization Akazawa Ryo will visit the US from May 23 - 25 for trade negotiations. Japan and the US Treasury Secretaries agree that exchange rates should be determined by the market [2] - India and the US are discussing a "three - stage" trade agreement, expected to reach a temporary agreement before early July. South Korea says its foreign exchange negotiations with the US are ongoing and no decision has been made [2] - The US Department of Commerce issued guidelines to strengthen export controls on China's AI - related products. China's Ministry of Commerce responded that implementing US measures would be illegal [2] - On May 13, the US April CPI data was lower than expected, indicating further alleviation of inflation pressure, but the impact of tariffs has not fully reached the consumer end [2] - On May 15, the Fed Chairman said that the Fed is about to adjust the interest rate - setting framework, and the "era of long - term low interest rates" may have ended, putting pressure on short - term Fed rate - cut expectations [2] - Fed Governor Waller said that if tariffs decline, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates in the second half of 2025 [2] - After the Trump tax bill barely passed the House of Representatives, the yield of the US 30 - year Treasury bond rose by more than 2 basis points, reaching 5.123%, the highest intraday level since October 2023 [2] Commodity Market - From the 2018 tariff review, the tariff increase event first trades on the decline in demand and then on the rise in inflation. Industrial products such as black and non - ferrous metals should beware of emotional shocks from US stock adjustments, while agricultural products have a higher probability of price increases due to tariffs [3] - In the energy sector, the price of crude oil has declined. The IEA monthly report lowered the oil demand forecast for this year. OPEC + confirmed a production increase of 411,000 barrels per day in June, and a large - scale production increase in July is under discussion. On May 22, Brent crude futures fell below $64 per barrel, down nearly 1.6% intraday [3] - The EU plans to ban the import of Russian natural gas and liquefied natural gas by the end of 2027, and stop signing new agreements and spot contracts by the end of 2025. The EU and the UK announced a new round of sanctions against Russia on the 20th, targeting Russia's energy construction and finance sectors, and also including Chinese and UAE companies in the sanctions list [3] - The European Commission plans to levy a 2 - euro tax on small packages entering the EU [3] Other Market Conditions - US stock index futures tumbled. The Nasdaq futures fell 0.27% intraday, the S&P 500 index futures fell 0.32%, and the Dow futures fell 0.45% [7] - The yield of Japanese long - term bonds continued to rise. The 40 - year yield rose 6 basis points to 3.675%, reaching the highest level since its issuance in 2007. The 10 - year yield rose 5 basis points to 1.565%, and the 20 - year yield rose 5.5 basis points to 2.595% [7] - The preliminary value of the eurozone's May manufacturing PMI was 49.4, the service PMI was 48.9, and the composite PMI was 49.5, all lower than expected [7]