FICC日报：马士基上海：鹿特丹运价开出，6月下半月仍存涨价预期-20250523

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The shipping companies have issued price increase letters for June. The focus is on the final price implementation under the high - capacity background in June and whether the shipping companies will raise prices again in the second half of June. The 08 contract is facing a strong game between expectations and reality due to the traditional peak season in August and relatively low capacity in July. It is recommended to conduct arbitrage operations recently [3]. - The supply of shipping capacity in European routes in June is relatively high, and the shipping capacity of Shanghai - East and West US routes has increased significantly month - on - month in June. The US and China have adjusted tariffs, suspending part of the additional tariffs [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Price - As of May 23, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures was 107,007.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 133,162.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1450.20, 1266.00, 1768.00, 2206.00, 1451.90, and 1617.30 respectively [4]. 2. Spot Price - On May 16, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1154.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West US route) price was 3091.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East US) price was 4069.00 US dollars/FEU. On May 19, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1265.30 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West US) was 1446.36 points [4]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of May 16, 2025, 98 container ships have been delivered, with a total delivery capacity of 762,700 TEU. Among them, 31 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 467,300 TEU, and 3 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 70,872 TEU [4]. - The average weekly shipping capacity in June was about 280,000 TEU. The shipping capacities in weeks 23/24/25/26/27 were 296,200/302,800/282,300/226,000/268,200 TEU respectively, with an average of 277,000 TEU, a year - on - year increase of more than 20%. The average weekly shipping capacity in July was 259,000 TEU. The average weekly shipping capacity of the Shanghai - East and West US routes in June was 320,500 TEU, while that in May was 243,400 TEU [2]. 4. Supply Chain No specific analysis content provided, only figure references. 5. Demand and European Economy No specific analysis content provided, only figure references.