摩根士丹利：中国股票策略-中国五因素消费者活动 Z 值与明晟中国指数对比

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies covered [19]. Core Insights - Consumer activity in China showed improvement in April 2025, although it remained in negative territory. Key indicators such as household loans, passenger car sales, and air passenger travel experienced slight improvements, while retail sales in catering remained stable. However, commodity retail sales weakened due to tariff disruptions [10]. - The effectiveness of the trade-in program has diminished, and the impact of lighter and later additional stimulus may put consumer sentiment under pressure in the coming months [10]. Summary by Relevant Sections Consumer Activity Indicators - The China Five-factor Consumer Activity Z-Score measures the momentum of consumer activity and has shown improvement, correlating positively with the MSCI China index performance [5][6]. - The five factors included in the Z-Score are: household loan year-over-year change, retail sales in catering year-over-year change, retail sales in commodities (excluding autos) year-over-year change, passenger car retail sales year-over-year three-month moving average, and air passenger traffic year-over-year three-month moving average [5]. Economic Context - The report indicates that while consumer activity has improved, the overall sentiment may be affected by external factors such as tariffs and the effectiveness of government stimulus measures [10].