Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term cautious bullish view on the unilateral investment in ethylene glycol [3] Core View - The polyester load is stable with a slight decline, and ethylene glycol (EG) is oscillating. The price of EG is weakly adjusted, and the spot basis is continuously strengthening. The production profit of ethylene - made EG and coal - made syngas - made EG has increased. The inventory in the main ports of East China has decreased. In the short term, due to the maintenance plans of several large plants, the tightening of liquidity under the solidification of warehouse receipts, and the low arrival volume, the price has support. The demand side is supported by the high - load polyester and the recovery of US orders, but attention should be paid to the negative feedback on the demand side when raw material prices rise rapidly [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract yesterday was 4411 yuan/ton (a change of - 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of - 0.07%), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4515 yuan/ton (a change of - 1 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of - 0.02%), and the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 96 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 8 yuan/ton). On Thursday, the price center of EG was weakly adjusted, and the spot basis continued to strengthen [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was - 22 US dollars/ton (a month - on - month increase of 1 US dollar/ton), and the production profit of coal - made syngas - made EG was 187 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 6 yuan/ton) [1] International Spread - No specific data and analysis on international spreads are provided in the text other than the mention of the chart "Ethylene glycol international spread: US FOB - China CFR" [19] Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - The near - end polyester load has increased at a high level, and the average monthly polyester load in May may not decrease but increase. The demand side is supported, and US orders for textile and clothing have resumed shipping [2] Inventory Data - According to the data released by CCF every Monday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 74.3 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 0.8 tons); according to the data released by Longzhong every Thursday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 61.2 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 5.2 tons). The actual arrival volume at the main ports last week was 64,000 tons, which was relatively low. The planned arrival volume at the main ports in East China this week is 109,000 tons, which is neutral [1]
化工日报：聚酯负荷持稳略降，EG震荡运行-20250523
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-05-23 05:58