日度策略参考-20250523

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Silver [1] - Bearish: Copper, Hot Rolled Coil, Manganese Ore, Coke, BR Rubber, Styrene, Urea, LPG [1] - Sideways: Stock Index, Bond Futures, Aluminum, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Iron Ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Wheat, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Logs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, Natural Rubber, Ethylene Glycol, PTA, Short Fiber, Methanol, PE, PP, PVC, Caustic Soda [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The market's reaction to tariff shocks and policy support is waning. The stock index's rebound has reached the upper limit of the range, and there is a risk of short - term shock adjustment. Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's interest - rate risk warning restricts the upside [1]. - Safe - haven demand drives up the price of gold, and its long - term upward logic remains solid. Silver follows gold but has limited medium - term upside. Weak macro data and downstream demand suppress copper prices in the short term. Aluminum's low inventory provides support, but the upside is limited [1]. - The situation in Guinea affects alumina prices, but the improvement in production profit may lead to复产 and limit the upside. Nickel and stainless steel prices are affected by supply, demand, and policy factors, showing short - term sideways movement [1]. - Before the resumption of production in Wa State, tin prices have strong fundamental support. Industrial silicon is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and is in a low - valuation range. Polysilicon has few registered warehouse receipts and a low willingness to register due to futures discounting spot [1]. - Lithium carbonate supply has not further shrunk, inventory is accumulating, and downstream procurement is based on rigid demand. Rebar and hot - rolled coil have insufficient price rebound drivers due to cost loosening and a loose supply - demand pattern [1]. - Iron ore has a peak iron - making water expectation, and manganese ore is expected to decline due to oversupply. Ferrosilicon's supply - demand turns tight due to production cuts. Glass and soda ash face supply - demand challenges, with glass affected by the rainy season and soda ash facing medium - term oversupply [1]. - Coking coal and coke are in a relatively oversupplied situation, and there are opportunities for positive spreads and selling hedging. Palm oil, rapeseed oil, and cotton are affected by various factors such as weather, policy, and season, showing sideways or slightly weak trends [1]. - Brazil's sugar production is expected to reach a record high, and wheat has a tight annual supply - demand expectation. Soybean meal is expected to move sideways in the short term. Pulp and logs have no obvious upward momentum [1]. - In the livestock market, the pig inventory is recovering, and the futures price is at a discount to the spot. Crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt are affected by factors such as the Iran - US nuclear agreement negotiation, OPEC+ production increase, and financial market risk preference [1]. - Natural rubber is affected by rainfall and storage rumors. BR rubber is expected to decline in the short and long term. PTA's supply - demand situation has changed, and ethylene glycol is in a de - stocking stage [1]. - Styrene and urea face weak demand. Methanol, PE, PP, PVC, and caustic soda are affected by factors such as production, demand, and policy, showing sideways or slightly strong trends. LPG is expected to move sideways or decline in the short term [1]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - financial Sector - Stock Index: The rebound has reached the upper limit of the range, and there is a risk of short - term shock adjustment due to the lack of incremental catalysts [1]. - Bond Futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank's interest - rate risk warning restricts the upside [1]. - Gold: Safe - haven demand drives up the price, and the long - term upward logic is solid [1]. - Silver: Follows gold, but has limited medium - term upside [1]. Non - ferrous Metals Sector - Copper: Weak macro data and downstream demand lead to short - term weak operation [1]. - Aluminum: Low inventory provides support, but the upside is limited, and it is expected to move sideways [1]. - Alumina: The situation in Guinea drives up the price, but production profit improvement may lead to复产 and limit the upside [1]. - Nickel: Affected by supply, demand, and policy, it shows short - term sideways movement, and there is a long - term surplus pressure [1]. - Stainless Steel: Affected by supply, demand, and trade factors, it shows short - term sideways movement, and there is long - term supply pressure [1]. - Tin: Before the resumption of production in Wa State, it has strong fundamental support [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Strong supply, weak demand, and in a low - valuation range [1]. - Polysilicon: Few registered warehouse receipts and low willingness to register due to futures discounting spot [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: Supply has not further shrunk, inventory is accumulating, and downstream procurement is based on rigid demand [1]. Black Metals Sector - Rebar: Insufficient price rebound drivers due to cost loosening and a loose supply - demand pattern [1]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: Bearish due to potential export weakness, cost loosening, and a loose supply - demand pattern [1]. - Iron Ore: There is a peak iron - making water expectation, and the supply side has no new stories for now [1]. - Manganese Ore: Expected to decline due to oversupply and heavy warehouse receipt pressure [1]. - Ferrosilicon: Supply - demand turns tight due to production cuts despite cost drag [1]. - Glass: Affected by the rainy season, the demand may weaken, and the price moves sideways [1]. - Soda Ash: Facing medium - term oversupply, the price is under pressure [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: In a relatively oversupplied situation, there are opportunities for positive spreads and selling hedging [1]. Agricultural Products Sector - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, and the production may be affected by the oil price [1]. - Wheat: Affected by new wheat listing and policy grain release, it is expected to move sideways, and a long - at - low strategy is recommended [1]. - Soybean Meal: Expected to move sideways in the short term due to the lack of obvious positive drivers [1]. - Pulp: Port inventory is rising, and the demand is weak, so it is expected to move sideways [1]. - Logs: Supply is loose, demand is weak, and the futures price is undervalued, so it is expected to move sideways [1]. - Pig: The inventory is recovering, the futures price is at a discount to the spot, and the futures price is stable [1]. Energy and Chemical Sector - Crude Oil and Fuel Oil: Affected by the Iran - US nuclear agreement negotiation, OPEC+ production increase, and financial market risk preference [1]. - Asphalt: Affected by cost, inventory, and demand factors, it is expected to move sideways [1]. - Natural Rubber: Affected by rainfall and storage rumors, and a long - short spread strategy can be considered [1]. - BR Rubber: Expected to decline in the short and long term [1]. - PTA: Supply - demand situation has changed, and the tight situation has been alleviated [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: In a de - stocking stage, and the spot market change is not obvious [1]. - Styrene: Weak demand leads to a decline in price [1]. - Urea: Lack of continuous upward momentum due to weak demand [1]. - Methanol: Affected by production, import, and macro factors, it is expected to move sideways at a low level [1]. - PE, PP, PVC: Affected by production, demand, and policy, showing sideways or slightly strong trends [1]. - Caustic Soda: Short - term spot is strong, and the subsequent trend depends on the alumina market [1]. - LPG: Expected to move sideways or decline in the short term due to tariff, demand, and supply factors [1]. Other Sector - Freight Index: A long - at - low strategy can be considered for the peak - season contract, and spread trading opportunities can be focused on [1].